shanghai at night Shanghai/Wang Gang/ZumaPress

La Chine face à des choix cruciaux

NEW YORK – Pour les plus de 60 ans, l'expression "les deux Chine" rappelle la période de l'après-guerre durant laquelle la Chine continentale "rouge" et Taiwan (ou plus formellement la République populaire de Chine et la République de Chine) étaient en concurrence pour obtenir la reconnaissance diplomatique sur la scène internationale. La République populaire étant trop grande et trop importante sur le plan économique et stratégique pour être laissée sur la touche, au début des années 1970 presque tous les pays ont accepté la demande de son gouvernement qui exigeait d'être le seul à être reconnu comme représentant légitime de la Chine.

Aujourd'hui une nouvelle question des deux Chine se pose, mais en termes très différents. Faut-il considérer l'empire du Milieu comme un pays puissant à l'avenir prometteur malgré quelques difficultés à court terme, ou comme un pays confronté à de graves problèmes structuraux et à un avenir à long terme des plus incertains. Laquelle de ces deux Chine verra-t-on émerger ?

Jusqu'à il y a peu, la question ne se posait pas. La croissance de l'économie chinoise a été supérieure à 10%, un taux étonnant, pendant plus de 30 ans. La Chine a dépassé le Japon pour devenir la deuxième économie mondiale. Des centaines de millions de Chinois pauvres ont accédé à la classe moyenne. Nombre de pays en développement ont paru séduit par le modèle chinois efficace et autoritaire - notamment après la crise financière de 2008 qui a débuté aux USA, discréditant le capitalisme et le libéralisme à l'américaine.

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