shanghai at night Shanghai/Wang Gang/ZumaPress

新“两个中国”问题

纽约—如果你年过六旬又关注国际时事,那么“两个中国”一词会让你想起1949年后的外交承认竞争,一边是中国大陆(“红色”中国),另一边是台湾;或者更正式地说,一边是中华人民共和国,另一边是中华民国。到20世纪70年代初,几乎所有国家都接受了中华人民共和国的要求,只承认它是合法的中国主权政府。大陆在经济和战略上太大太重要,你无法孤立它。

如今,一个全然不同的新的“两个中国”问题正在浮现。其核心是中国应该被理解为一个强国,尽管存在一些短期困难但前途光明,还是应该被理解为一个面临严重结构问题、长期前景不确定的国家。简言之,现在可以瞥见两个截然不同的中国。但哪一个会成为现实?

这是一个直到最近才值得有此一问的问题。三十多年来,中国经济一直以令人咋舌的年均10%或以上的速度增长。中国已经取代日本成为世界第二大经济体。数亿中国人跻身中产阶级。中国的极权效率模式似乎对许多其他发展中国家很有吸引力,特别是在2008年全球金融危机后。2008年全球金融危机源于美国,因此令美国式自由资本主义信誉大损。

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