Eine Wende für Nordkorea

SEOUL – Allem Anschein nach werden erneut Verhandlungen über die Denuklearisierung der koreanischen Halbinsel aufgenommen. Leider ist es unwahrscheinlich, dass sie bald abgeschlossen werden. Gespräche über einen so genannten „grand bargain“, zu Deutsch etwa eine „große Übereinkunft“, bleiben genau das – Gespräche.

Zwischen Nordkorea und den Vereinigten Staaten, Südkorea und Japan besteht so gut wie kein Vertrauen. Alle Regierungschefs – einschließlich Kim Jong Il aus Nordkorea – halten zwar öffentlich an ihrem Engagement für atomare Abrüstung fest, doch keiner scheint bereit, innenpolitisch nennenswerte Risiken einzugehen, um dieses Ziel zu erreichen. Das Beste, was sich die Welt gegenwärtig erhoffen kann, ist ein zu neuem Leben erweckter Dialog, eine Vereinbarung, den nordkoreanischen Atomreaktor Yongbyon einzufrieren und eventuell ein Moratorium für weitere Raketen- und Atomtests.

Um diesen Prozess zu beschleunigen, ist eine neue langfristige Strategie erforderlich, die auf die grundlegenden Faktoren abzielt, die in Nordkorea – und im Zusammenhang mit seinen Machthabern – maßgeblich sind. Einfach ausgedrückt müssen die USA und andere Mächte ein konstruktives wirtschaftliches Engagement mit Nordkorea anstreben, um das Regime dabei zu unterstützen, durch wirtschaftliche Transformation und Integration in die globale Wirtschaft „Stärke und Wohlstand“ zu erlangen.

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