الخروج من أفغانستان

نيودلهي ــ في خطاب النصر الذي ألقاه أمام حشد مبتهج جذل في شيكاغو في أعقاب إعادة انتخابه، أكَّد الرئيس باراك أوباما أن "الصراع الذي دام عشرة أعوام" والذي تخوضه أميركا في أفغانستان سوف ينتهي الآن. واستُقبِلَت هذه العبارة بالتصفيق الحاد المطول ــ وكان ذلك أمراً مفهوما. الواقع أن هذه الحرب المتهورة غير المدروسة ــ التي شُنِّت استناداً إلى قرار مجلس الأمن التابع للأمم المتحدة ــ تدور رحاها منذ أحد عشر عاما، الأمر الذي يجعلها الحرب الأطول في التاريخ الأميركي.

في مستهل الأمر، كان الهدف من هذه الحرب القضاء على تنظيم القاعدة، ودحر حركة طالبان، وتحويل أفغانستان إلى شيء أشبه بالدولة القومية على النمط الغربي. ومع عدم تحقق أي من هذه الأهداف بالكامل، فإن التدخل الأميركي ــ مثله كمثل أي تدخل آخر في تاريخ أفغانستان ــ يتجه الآن إلى نهاية غير مرضية.

ومع إسدال الستار، هناك تطوران من شأنهما أن يؤثراً إلى حد كبير على عملية الانسحاب والنتيجة النهائية. الأول يتلخص في إدارة عملية نقل السيطرة إلى السلطات الأفغانية، والتي تعتمد على انسحاب منظم للقوات الأميركية وقوات حلف شمال الأطلسي بحلول عام 2014. أما التطور الثاني فهو انتخاب رئيس أفغاني جديد، والذي من المقرر أن يجري أيضاً في عام 2014 ــ الأمر الذي يفترض أن يسمح للولايات المتحدة وحلفائها في حلف شمال الأطلسي بالادعاء بقدر معقول من المصداقية بأنهم يسلمون البلاد إلى حكومة شرعية.

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