L’Iran a-t-il changé ?

RIYAD – A l’aube de 2014, il n’existe pas sujet plus important en matière de diplomatie internationale que celui-ci : l’Iran a-t-il changé ? Depuis son élection en juin dernier, le nouveau président de l’Iran Hassan Rouhani, a affiché une attitude plus modérée dans les relations internationales du pays. Mais la prudence est de mise – aujourd’hui comme dans les années à venir. Deuxième producteur mondial de pétrole, chef de file auto-proclamé de l’Islam shiite et des révolutionnaires musulmans anti-Occident partout dans le monde, l’Iran demeure un danger non seulement pour l’Arabie Saoudite, mais aussi pour la paix et la stabilité au Moyen-Orient et au-delà.

Deux points inquiètent particulièrement l’Arabie Saoudite : la poursuite de l’armement nucléaire de la République Islamique, et son interférence dans les affaires intérieures de ses voisins.

Pour commencer, les efforts que l’Iran développe pour son armement nucléaire posent un énorme risque, qui, laissé incontrôlé, est susceptible de déclencher une vague de prolifération dans l’ensemble du Moyen-Orient. Devant un Iran muni de l’arme nucléaire, les membres du Conseil de coopération du golfe, par exemple, devront soigneusement mesurer leurs options – et pourraient même être encouragés à acquérir à leur tour une dissuasion nucléaire.

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