伊朗改变了吗

利雅得—随着2014年的到来,世界最重要的外交问题莫过于“伊朗改变了吗?”自6月当选以来,新总统鲁哈尼在伊朗国际关系问题上显示出更温和的立场。但谨慎仍是主流——不管是现在还是未来几年。世界第二大产油国、自称为什叶派伊斯兰教和反西方穆斯林革命领袖的伊朗依然是一个威胁,不管是对沙特阿拉伯还是对中东和周边地区的和平与稳定。

沙特阿拉伯对伊朗有两大担忧:其对核武器的诉求以及其对邻国事务的干预。

首先,伊朗发展核武器的动作是一个巨大的威胁,如果得不到遏制,有可能导致中东地区的核扩散风潮。面对有核的伊朗,(比如)海湾合作委员会(Gulf Cooperation Council)成员国将被迫仔细掂量各自的选择——有可能会纷纷发展自己的核威慑力。

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