¿Podrá Turquía capear el temporal de Oriente Próximo?

ESTAMBUL – Gran parte de Oriente Próximo ha quedado atrapada en un ciclo de terrible violencia, cuyo centro pasó de Irak (donde últimamente ha vuelto a agravarse la lucha sectaria) a Siria, pero que también incluye a Egipto, Yemen, Libia y Túnez. Más al este, Afganistán sufre su segunda década de conflicto violento, mientras Pakistán parece estar crónicamente al borde de la guerra, la guerra civil o la desintegración social.

La amenaza subyacente más preocupante es el incremento de los combates entre musulmanes sunnitas y shiítas. Al mismo tiempo, los conservadores devotos y la juventud secular de orientación liberal e izquierdista, que en 2010 y 2011 unieron fuerzas en El Cairo y Túnez para desafiar a los dictadores, ahora se han enfrentado: basta ver las horrorosas masacres perpetradas hace poco en El Cairo por las fuerzas de seguridad egipcias contra manifestantes islamistas, después de un golpe militar que tuvo el apoyo de los liberales. Los pueblos de la región están derivando hacia campos enemigos y al hacerlo profundizan las heridas abiertas en sus sociedades.

Muchas veces dije que Turquía no debería intervenir en los asuntos internos de sus vecinos ni adoptar una política centrada en Oriente Próximo. Tanto el gobierno como la oposición deberían mantener la vista firme en Europa, a pesar de los obstáculos que la Unión Europea opuso a Turquía durante las negociaciones de ingreso.

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