En Turquía, ¿el último acto?

CAMBRIDGE: Turquía se ha estado escapando de los problemas desde hace mucho. De hecho, como escapista supera incluso a Brasil. No obstante, la cuenta por esta osada actuación sigue aumentando: deuda alta y creciente, déficits altos y crecientes, inflación muy elevada. Todos son síntomas de la corrupta política turca.

Las políticas tramposas generalmente implican cuatro cosas: primero, ocultar e impedir la transparencia en el gobierno como la plaga que es para los políticos marrulleros. Segundo, retrasar todos los ajustes que no sean inevitables porque las reformas, la reestructuración y la limpieza de los desórdenes financieros nunca atraen nuevos compinches. Tercero, seguir gastando y pagando a cualquiera que ponga en riesgo el proceso. Por último, no adoptar una visión demasiado dogmática sobre la corrupción o el saqueo de las arcas públicas; son parte del sistema. Recuérdese que la corrupción mantiene las cosas estables.

En el 2000, un programa del FMI tenía la intención de ofrecer a Turquía un marco que le permitiera salir de sus problemas. Pero como suele suceder con los programas basados en el tipo de cambio, las tasas de interés bajaron y las importaciones se abarataron, lo que creó un boom que minó la viabilidad de la estrategia de desinflación. Después de todo, ¿qué político se opone a un boom?

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