Turquie: le dernier acte?

CAMBRIDGE - La Turquie a toujours su trouver une issue face aux crises. Sur ce terrain, elle bat même le Brésil! Mais la note à payer est de plus en plus élevée: une dette importante qui va en augmentant, même chose pour le déficit, et une inflation galopante. Ce sont les symptômes d'une politique peu fiable.

Une ligne politique douteuse repose généralement sur quatre éléments: d'abord étouffer les affaires et fuir la transparence comme la peste; deuxièmement, retarder toute prise de décision, à l'exception des mesures inévitables, car les réformes, les restructurations et l'assainissement financier ne permettent pas d'attirer une nouvelle clientèle; troisièmement, continuer à entretenir et à payer tous ceux qui pourraient mettre en péril le système; finalement, ne pas avoir un point de vue trop rigide vis à vis de la corruption et du pillage de l'argent public, cela fait partie du système. Ne pas oublier que la corruption est gage de stabilité.

En 2000, le programme d'aide du FMI était supposé fournir un cadre à la Turquie pour sortir de ses difficultés. Mais comme c'est le cas avec les programmes basés sur le taux de change, les taux d'intérêt se sont écroulés et le coût des importations a diminué, ce qui a provoqué un boom qui contrecarrait la stratégie de désinflation. Mais après tout, quel est l'homme politique qui dirait non à un boom économique?

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