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土耳其的叙利亚困局

马德里—2015年行将结束,在结束叙利亚战争方面已经做出了一些新举措——尽管是一些小规模尝试性举措。联合国安理会通过了2254号决议,支持让叙利亚实现结束冲突的过渡,而国际叙利亚支持组织(International Syria Support Group,ISSG)已经定下了将在下个月进行的下一次会议的日期。但ISSG中既有盟友也有对手——比如沙特阿拉伯和伊朗——这意味着能否继续取得进展仍是个挑战。

如今,该进程中的另一组国家——土耳其和俄罗斯似乎也走向了为敌的道路。土耳其与叙利亚毗邻,这既是挑战也是机会,它能够在决定和平进程如何实现方面起到特别重要的作用。但上个月土耳其在其与叙利亚边境击落俄罗斯战机导致图俄关系急转直下,克里姆林宫已经报之以经济制裁。

至于俄罗斯,它正在面临保持在中东进行活跃军事行动的严峻现实。它支持总统巴沙尔·阿萨德政权(从而增强其自身在谈判桌上的分量),这让它站在了想要阿萨德下台的其他国家的对立面,包括北约成员国土耳其。

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