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土耳其不断变化的自由赤字

Sep 15, 2016 Timur Kuran

达拉谟——土耳其正义与发展党（AKP）2002年上台时曾承诺会给予虔诚的穆斯林宗教自由。十四年后，正义与发展党最不可能带来的就是“自由”。

今天，就连正义与发展党的支持者也要仔细衡量自己的言论，唯恐被视为批判政府或者同情敌人。7月15日针对埃尔多安政府的政变失败后坚持这种做法更加必要了。现在，销毁与正义发展党敌人——特别是隐居在美国宾夕法尼亚州被指策划此次政变的伊玛目费图拉·居伦有染的任何证据——关系到自我保护。

迫使土耳其民众隐藏自己的爱好和信仰绝不是埃尔多安政府的创举。在二十世纪20到50年代世俗政府对土耳其的统治下，甚至在某种程度上直到2002年，虔诚的土耳其人要想在政界、军界甚至商界出人头地就必须淡化自己的宗教信仰，小心翼翼地避免表态支持政治伊斯兰主义。

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Turkey’s Baffling Coup
Ozan Kose/Stringer

Turkey’s Baffling Coup

Dani Rodrik expects the failed putsch to result in massive purges and further erosion of the rule of law.

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David Morgan Sep 21, 2016

The only good news from the turmoil in Turkey is that it is very unlikely to join the EU this century.
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Melih Erdoğmuş Sep 19, 2016

Great article to let other know that Erdogan's movement through a country ruled by political islam. Even though an attempt to coup a government chosen by the society is wrong, the situation here we have in Turkey is more likely a movement to be dragged into the chaos of the Middle East. No matter how much the religious groups in Turkey say that they have been having hard times since the establishment of Republic of Turkey, even every single of human-being from that society knows that it's just one big hoax. No need to mention that witch hunt ongoing in Turkey in order to arrest people related to the latest failed coup attempt on July 15, but Turkey still have to remember that people against the government apart from the Gulenist movement have to be kept in safe in order to provide a healthy opposition in Turkish politics.
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j. von Hettlingen Sep 16, 2016

Timur Kuran highlights the complex and interlocking problems of Turkey's policies towards its domestic and foreign policies. The country has embarked on a bumpy road to uncertainty and instability, creating a society where ordinary people no longer "feel free to speak openly and honestly. The ongoing witch hunt causes citizens of all persuasions to fear for their jobs and their lives," forcing them to adopt the survival strategy of dissimulation - to keep quiet.
What is disappointing is that a decade ago Erdogan was lauded for Turkey's unique Islamic liberal democracy, serving as a beacon of hope in the region. Today the country is in a state of emergency after the failed coup in July, and the decree will no doubt be extended next month. That so much had changed within a year just shows how unstable Turkey is. A year ago, the situation was not as tense. Turkey was preoccupied with fighting the PKK, claiming the Kurdish fighters posing an existential threat to Turkey's democracy and stability. Ankara was not keen on going after ISIS in Syria, alienating its Western allies. Since the failed coup, Erdogan blames the US for being complicit in the plot, and resents the West for failing to show solidarity with Turkey over its ordeal.
With the sheer number of arrests many wonder whether Erdogan might have drawn the list before the coup, prompting speculation that he could have staged it "to justify the epic purge." Apart from supporters of the Gülenist movement, who are alleged to form a “parallel state,” and secular Kemalists within the army, who plotted the coup, journalists are also seen as part of Gülen's fifth column.
Turkey’s politics has always functioned like a pendulum: it swings from one side to the other, and back again. Before the Arab Spring , it swung from secularism to political Islam. In recent years this pendulum has come out of swing, with Erdogan's policies relating the Kurdish issue, the war in Syria, the Gülenist movement and the failed coup all got out of control.
The author says both "the AKP and many of its opponents agree on one thing: had the putsch succeeded, the repression would be far worse." No doubt the Turks have reasons to reject this way of deposing a democratically elected leader, given the decades of secularism under military rule, when pious citizens had to "hide their preferences and beliefs," when they sought "advancement in government, the military, and even commerce."
Even if AKP supporters "far outnumber Gülenists," it is unlikely that the two sects of Islam reconcile." No doubt the AKP under Erdogan will only further alienate those who don't support this party, whose only survival strategy is to feign their support for Erdogan. For the time being they have no choice but to keep quiet, waiting for the next election and hoping to unseat him - in a democratic process.
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Mustafa Senturk Sep 16, 2016

Wonderful article that provides clues on on the visible decline of Turkey from a regional star in 2010 to a hesitant and inconsistent lone power of the Middle East. There is not a detailed study/analysis yet showing how Erdogan took control of the public opinion through his step-by-step "acquisition" of the new media. What makes one hopeless about the potential for change in Turkish politics is the disappointing failure of Turkish intellectuals to forma check on the abuse of law and democracy in the name of populism.
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Robert Winter Sep 16, 2016

JBS: It is difficult to know whether you are serious. The cases against the generals were a sham and countless actions of the government have been illegal. This is not the place to list them all but surely you are not arguing that Turkey under the recent incarnation of Erdogan is governed by the rule of law where government actions can be challenged before an independent judiciary? Erdogan years ago appeared to be committed to a democratic Turkey. Now his different "vision" for Turkey appears to be one where he can sit as a modern Sultan in his multi-hundred room palace.
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John Brian Shannon Sep 15, 2016

Hi Timur,

It's a gift to read this intelligent narrative of Turkish politics in the 21st century.

I agree with every word of it, yet, it's possible that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan simply has a different vision for Turkey, than has been the case in previous centuries.

As long as his actions and the actions of the Turkish military, security services, and the government generally are legal, then there isn't much to complain about. (We may, or may not, like his vision for the country, but as long as it's being promoted legally, then we have no real case against Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)

If it isn't that, then the world community has an area of concern that encompasses Turkey and it's neighbouring countries.

I look forward to reading more of your commentary over the coming months/years. Thank you for posting this fine essay at ProSyn.

As always, very best regards, JBS
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土耳其不断变化的自由赤字

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