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土耳其民主的秘密武器

牛津——不久前,土耳其的那次未遂政变凸显了该国面对军事接管一贯非常脆弱。但这次政变也揭示了一种新的——而且是非常有效的——资产,这样的资产土耳其的邻国也应当设法加以利用:一个愿意并有能力反对极端威胁的强大的中产阶级。雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安总统是否会利用这一资产是土耳其现在所面临的问题。而对其他中东国家而言,问题在于如何建设一个有能力维稳的中产阶级。

当成群结队的市民为打击军事政变制造者深夜走上伊斯坦布尔街头,这是集体力量的充分展示——这种力量应当引起任何政治领袖,尤其是那些试图发展自己国家的政治领袖的关注。对政变的分析往往把重点放在土耳其精英阶层和埃尔多安决策不利方面(在上述方面寻找原因肯定有不小的收获)。但很少有人提及导致该国中产阶级崛起的土耳其政治经济结构性转型,正是上述转型构成了埃尔多安正义与发展党(AKP)的选民基础。

过去20年来,土耳其取得了令人瞩目的经济成就,从欧洲病夫一跃成为欧洲最具活力的经济体之一和新的中东贸易中心区。基础设施投资、支持中型企业、扩大地区贸易和发展旅游业成为土耳其转型的关键因素。

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