相信谈判,而非伊朗

北韩同意放弃其核子计划对于国际社会而言是一个巨大的成功。显然,该国经济状况恶劣,急需能源,从而使得这一协议在某种程度上有点贿赂的味道。但是北韩的决定还是表明了外交的优点和功用。这就再一次把我们带到了伊朗问题上来。

法国总统希拉克最近指出,我们不必过高估计伊朗拥有核武的严重性。我对此不敢苟同。当然,拥有并非意味着使用,过去15年来世界有了8个核子国家,而自从1945年以来还从来没有使用过核武器。但是,伊朗一跃成为第九个核子国家将会促发地区和全球动荡,危险地加剧恐惧和怀疑,并且让国际社会面对一场深刻的事关大局观和政策的危机。这也是毫无疑问的。

那么,我们可以做些什么呢?首先,诉诸武力根本就是不现实的。一次核武器打击将会产生无可估量的后果,穆斯林世界将会在这一情况下同仇敌忾。使用常规武力打击也是不可能的,因为以色列和伊朗没有共同边界,而大多数美国陆军都身陷阿富汗和伊拉克。

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