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特朗普能与中国达成贸易协议吗?

香港—美国与中国之间的贸易谈判正在接近3月1日的最后期限,过了这个期限,双边关税战将重新拉开,首先是美国对价值2,000亿美元的中国产品关税从10%提高到25%。全球金融市场波动剧烈,投资者认为美国和中国之间纠葛太多,不得不达成协议。希望他们的乐观不会昙花一现。

平心而论,在不少关键问题上,如技术转移、知识产权保护、非关税壁垒以及实施机制等,进展很大。但持续性地消弭中美之间的紧张需要更全面的方针,特别是在观念与思维方式方面需要有一个根本性的转变。

在过去40年中,中美关系基本由合作主导,这体现了双方考虑整个全球体系利益的大局观。但美国总统特朗普政府并不认为与中国(或者其他任何国家)合作能够实现双赢。特朗普的“美国优先”策略表明,美国正在玩一个零和博弈,并且以赢为目标。

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