trump alabama rally Mark Wallheiser/Stringer

El nuevo mundo incierto de Trump

CIUDAD DE MEXICO – La única certeza sobre la próxima administración del presidente electo de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, es la incertidumbre que la acompañará. Mantenerse impredecible puede ser una táctica exitosa en los negocios, pero es un rasgo inquietante, hasta peligroso, para el líder del país más poderoso del mundo. Esto es especialmente válido con respecto a tres áreas de políticas sensibles.

La primera es la economía estadounidense y su impacto en las economías del resto de los países. Si Trump recorta los impuestos y logra implementar un gigantesco programa de infraestructura, los déficits presupuestarios de Estados Unidos aumentarán, quizá drásticamente. Esto, junto con las alzas graduales de la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal, fortalecerá el dólar, debilitará las monedas de los llamados mercados emergentes y encaminará el dinero del resto del mundo hacia Estados Unidos. 

En la medida que las monedas de los países latinoamericanos, asiáticos y africanos se deprecien, sus reservas se derrumbarán o sus propias tasas de interés se dispararán, y aumentará la inflación. Para las economías que apenas han podido mantenerse a flote desde que terminó el reciente boom de las materias primas, esta es una perspectiva preocupante, si no aterradora.

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