trump alabama rally Mark Wallheiser/Stringer

特朗普的无定新世界

发自墨西哥城——继任美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的新政府唯一确定能为人们带来的一点,就是其不确定性。保留不确定性或许是一个成功的商业策略,但对于世界上最强大国家的领导者来说,这却是一个令人不安甚至危险的特质。而在三大敏感政策领域则尤其如此

第一是美国经济及其对所有其他经济体的影响。如果特朗普实施减税并成功启动大规模基础设施计划,美国的预算赤字将会上升,甚至可能急剧上升。这会与美联储的逐步加息一起令美元进一步走强,进而削弱所谓的新兴市场货币,并将货币从世界其他地区转移到美国。

随着拉丁美洲,亚洲和非洲国家的货币贬值,它们将面临储备下跌或本国利率飙升的情况,同时通胀率上升。对于那些自从大宗商品繁荣期终结以后只能勉强维持的经济体,这是一个令人担忧,甚至有点可怕的前景。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/sSGmXjE/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.