Cars destined for export stand at Bremerhaven port

Politics

Pax Trumpia

Mar 26, 2018 Joschka Fischer

BERLIJN – President van de VS Donald Trump begint zijn minachting voor het internationale systeem nu serieus in hard beleid om te zetten. Zijn beslissing om 50 miljard dollar aan importheffingen in te stellen op veel Chinese goederen zou de wereldhandel ernstig kunnen verstoren. En alhoewel hij om twee voor twaalf de beslissing nam om EU-goederen van dit soort tarieven uit te zonderen komt Europa wellicht later nog in de vuurlinie te liggen.

De ‘Amerika Eerst’ aanpak van Trump zal zoals nu blijkt de op regels gebaseerde internationale orde niet ongemoeid laten. Het waren de Amerikanen die de naoorlogse orde schiepen, en deze decennialang hebben gehandhaafd. Maar dit is niet langer het geval. Trumps recente acties gaan dan ook niet alleen over handel, maar over het Amerikaanse loslaten van de gehele Pax Americana.

Er zijn weinig landen die meer met de naoorlogse orde verbonden zijn dan Duitsland, dat zijn economische wederopstanding van na 1945 net als Japan dankt aan het op regels gebaseerde handelssysteem. De Duitse economie leunt zwaar op de export, wat betekent dat het acuut kwetsbaar is voor handelsbarrières en straftarieven opgelegd door grote handelspartners.

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Behrooz Bayat Apr 5, 2018

It is amazing: Mr. Fischer was foreign Minister in the cabinet of Mr. Schröder, which decided to make Germany a low-wage country via the program Agenda 2010. This was exactly the program which reduced the domestic consumption and enhanced the export. Now, he is complaining about the consequences of his policy and recommends the move in the opposite direction. Is he credible? Of cours he may have learned but it would be better if he admits his failure.
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j. von Hettlingen Mar 31, 2018

The author says in a trade war “Germany would be one of the biggest losers,” owing to its heavy reliance on exports since the 1950s. In fact, “few countries are more connected to the post-war order than Germany, which, like Japan, owes its economic resurgence after 1945 to the rules-based trading system.” Trump’s trade and foreign policies also mark a clear departure from the current world order – Pax Americana – that has secured global security for decades.
The author also criticises “the foolishness of German policymakers who chose to ignore longstanding criticism of the country’s persistently high current-account surplus.” He rebukes Angela Merkel’s government for failing to reduce it, “by boosting domestic investment.” Or else Germany “would be in a far better position to respond to Trump’s threats.” Unfortunately neither Berlin nor Brussels is “in a strong position to stand up to Trump.”
Trump’s trade war could take a toll on the German economy, while some EU members might feel “schadenfreude.” However a weakened Germany “would have immediate negative effects on the entire bloc.” Given the challenges the EU is facing – Brexit, rise of anti-EU populists and “political dissonance among member states – it is “hardly the time for disunity.” Therefore, it is imperative that Europeans “act quickly to preserve their unity and salvage the international system that has provided them with peace and prosperity for generations.”
Mahatma Gandhi is said to have quipped: “An eye for an eye only ends up making the whole world blind.” Trump ought to know that “a tit-for-tat transatlantic trade war would produce losers on all sides, and could usher in a new period of isolationism and protectionism.” An escalation of tensions would “lead to a collapse of the global economy and the disintegration of the West. For this reason, the EU has no choice but to negotiate, however grudgingly.”
The author fears that the current crisis could “push Europe closer to China, which is already reaching out to the EU through its Belt and Road Initiative of investment and infrastructure projects across Eurasia.” But he thinks this new alternative “to transatlanticism” is not without risk, because “Europeans now have to worry not just about Russia, but also about a new Chinese superpower.” He says, “striking the right balance between East and West will be one of Europe’s most difficult challenges.”
That Trump did not know that his “import tariffs on steel and aluminum will mostly help China, while hurting America’s European allies” shows how ignorant he is. He has accused China of flooding the world with cheap steel and aluminium in a way that forced many US plants to close becaue they could not compete with the Chinese low prices. He believes that tariffs will help revive the US steel and aluminium industries, and has not thought through the repercussions of his actions.
Trump’s “America First” agenda is unambiguous, and he now surrounds himself with people who support his economic nationalism. Having campaigned as a protectionist, he is eager to prove himself one. “Trade wars are good and easy to win” he tweeted on March 2, assuming the spoils go to those who negotiate hardest. He has vowed to impose trade restrictions on any country that he felt had an unfair trade relationship with the US, following through on threats. His latest blueprints highlight the most protectionist US trade policy in roughly a century.
Trump’s withdrawal from the the Trans-Pacific Partnership right after his inauguration was a boon for China. The trade deal would have created a bulwark against China in the Asia-Pacific region. Now, Beijing has a “chance to set the rules of trade in an area comprising some 60% of the world economy.” Unknowingly, Trump has played into the hands of Xi Jinping, who now can claim himself as the guardian of globalisation and free trade.
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Godfree Roberts Mar 26, 2018

"Germany, which, like Japan, owes its economic resurgence after 1945 to the rules-based trading system”? Nonsense.

Germany, like Japan, owes its economic resurgence after 1945 to abandoning its independence and becoming a militarily occupied satrap. How shameful for such a great nation.
- stephan Edwards Mar 26, 2018
  
  I don't think they actually had a choice about being occupied. Start then lose a war and bad things happen.
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