Worker's lockers in the abandoned Qingquan Steel plant Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

贸易战的代价

日内瓦—非洲古谚云,“大象打架,小草遭殃。”全方位贸易战亦然:主要经济体发生冲突的话,首创最重的将是发展中国家。

6月1日,美国政府对钢征收25%进口关税,对铝征收10%进口关税。这些税收不但影响到中国,也影响到加拿大、墨西哥和欧盟国家。欧盟贸易委员西西莉亚·马尔姆斯特伦(Cecilia Malmström)在最近由联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)组织的异常活动中观察道,“我们没有处在贸易战之中,但我们原本可能。”这是一个值得所有人关注的状况。

我们从历史中知道,没人可以“赢得”贸易战。主要贸易国提升关税是对二战以来取消贸易壁垒、促进全球商业的趋势的反动。自1947年关贸总协定生效以来,全球执行的关税平均值下降了85%。这不是巧合,而是多边合作以及八轮全球贸易谈判(先是关贸总协定,后来在其继任者世贸组织名义下组织)的结果。

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