China maintenance base for trains VCG

为何特朗普不能胁迫中国

坎布里奇—美国总统特朗普接二连三地破坏战后国际经济秩序,许多国家为此战战兢兢。评论家搜索词库来描述他对领导力的传统规范和现代民主社会的忍耐极限的挑战。主流媒体不得不面临一位有时候极度无知又对自己所说的话深信不疑的总统,踌躇着要不要将显然子虚乌有的言辞打上谎言的标签。

但也有人认为,在一地狼藉的表象下,特朗普政府从全球化的混乱大撤军有其经济理由。根据这一观点,美国受骗让中国崛起,总有一天会后悔。我们经济学家倾向于认为美国让出世界领导地位是一个历史性错误。

很重要的一点是承认美国反全球化运动的根源比蓝领工人被夺权(disenfranchised)深刻得多。比如,一些经济学家反对跨太平洋合作伙伴关系(TPP,一个由12个国家组成的贸易协议,覆盖了全球经济的40%)的原因很可疑,他们说这会伤及美国工人。事实上,TPP在打开日本国门上的作用远远大于对美国的影响。拒绝TPP只能为中国创造在经济上主宰太平洋的机会。

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