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特朗普使美国经济减速

剑桥一段时间以来,美国宏观经济决策的四驾马车一直是税收、监管、贸易和基础设施。在详细研究了第一大领域之后,我发现减税对经济增长是一个积极的贡献。虽然我对第二大经济领域的考虑较少,但有证据表明,监管充其量只是对经济增长有小部分的贡献。第三个领域非常重要,这就是为什么今天的贸易紧张局势如此令人担忧的原因。第四个领域只存在于华而不实的空话中:基础设施项目目前并不属于宏观经济政策的范畴。

在第一个领域,我估计2017年的税收立法使美国2018年 GDP 增加了1.1%。其中,0.9个百分点反映了个人税率的下降,而0.2个百分点则来自于降息和企业费用拨备的改善。虽然我预计个人减税政策的经济增长效果不会持续到2019年以后,但企业税改革的影响仍可能会持续一段时间。

至于第二个领域,有迹象表明,在经历了长期增长之后,联邦法规的扩张开始放缓。截至2017年,联邦公报中与经济活动限制相关的文字数量的 RegData 显示,新的监管规定已趋于平缓。商业和经济活动的监管负担不再增加,但也没有减少。

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