trump Nicholas Kamm/Getty Images

与特朗普的谎言共舞

伯克利—最近,我为《沃克斯》(Vox撰文阐述我对美国总统特朗普的新贸易政策的看法。我说,“坏”贸易协议,如北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA),只是过去30年来美国制造业就业岗位减少的一个微不足道的因素。过去30年中,制造业占就业总量百分比下降了21.4个百分点,其中只有0.1个百分点可以归因于1993年生效的NAFTA。

半个世纪前,美国经济可以提供足够且有余的制造业岗位吸收十分适合这些岗位的劳动力。如今,其中许多机会已经消失。这毫无疑问是一个大问题;但如果你宣称美国制造业就业崩溃是“坏”贸易协议所赐,那你就是在玩弄愚民。

关于美国制造业就业下降的事实很简单;也没有“替代方案”。罪魁是生产率增长和需求有限,这导致非农制造业就业占比从20世纪60年代的30%,一代人之后就下降到12%。误导性宏观经济政策所赐让该比例继续下降至9%,特别是里根时期,赤字支出和过于紧缩的货币政策导致美元飙升,破坏了竞争力。此后,美国不再是资本和金融的净出口国,较不发达国家成为投资资金的净来源。最后,中国的超常快速崛起让制造业占就业之比下降到8.7%;而NAFTA使它下降到8.6%。

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