Donald Trump Scott Olson/Getty Images

破坏者特朗普

华盛顿—唐纳德·特朗普,共和党角逐11月美国总统大选的推定提名人,显然不是标准的共和党。共和党领导人和当选官员在初选期间一直在与他作对,其中不少至今仍不愿支持他。现在,特朗普正在让他的一些政策主张与共和党主流观点相一致,但同时他也显然决定要保留自己与众不同的身份。

由此产生的意识形态组合主要由三部分构成:恶毒的反移民仇恨,无知的反贸易论调,以及极端的反政府情绪。单独来看,任何一项都具有破坏性。合起来,它们可能给美国和全球繁荣带来沉重一击,同时也会削弱国家和国际安全。

毫无疑问,特朗普是现代美国最反移民的总统候选人。他提出的以一个观点和首屈一指的名言便是在南边国境上“建设一道墙”,从而将墨西哥和其他拉丁移民排除在国门之外。他还想驱逐1,100万人并拒绝一切穆斯林入境。

这不啻建立一个警察国家——核查身份,突袭人们的住所,鼓励邻里互相揭发。从根本上说,这也是反美国的,因为这破坏了一切美国所实现的东西。美国是一个移民国家——是全世界最擅长融合新来者的国家。在美国呆了一代人后,没人在乎你的家庭来自哪里。

特朗普——以及哪些让他问鼎权力的人——将把这一切一股脑儿抛诸脑后。由此产生的社会破坏不但将造成经济减速,还将让GDP和收入持续下降。

特朗普阵营的反贸易立场也非常令人震惊,对商界同样如此。特朗普真正希望用潜在贸易战对付中国和其他国家,完全忽视对美国的影响(出口占美国经济活动总量的14%左右)。过去70年,美国费尽心机与远交近邻进行和平贸易。特朗普信誓旦旦要撕毁这些规则,这将导致又一场大萧条,带来大规模失业,让数百万人无法偿还按揭、学生贷款和其他债务。

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特朗普在共和党传统的反政府日程上又加上了一些主题,但无不带有特朗普特色的浮夸扭曲。金融改革将被完全废除,不管结果如何。美国将回到在2008年几乎让世界金融体系彻底崩溃——也让美国损失了至少一年的GDP(超过20万亿美元)——的安排上。

此外,特朗普提出的减税方案也将规模巨大——从而增加联邦预算赤字,大幅推高国民债务。特朗普将祭出标准的共和党主张——减税将“自动补偿损失”或带来高速增长。这些主张与现代美国——包括小布什时期——的经验完全背道而驰。

这一经济政策方针是经典的民粹主义:承诺选民不可能的东西,特别是在承诺的副作用在很久以后才会显现出来的情况下。如果特朗普当选,美国可以期待过去100年阿根廷反复发生的经济周期。不平等性将扩大,极少数人暴富,大多数人工资低下,随后是破坏性萧条——富人依旧逍遥,但中产阶级将回到贫困,社会安全网支离破碎。

在我们的书《火烧白宫》(White House Burning)中,郭庾信(James Kwak)和我强调财政可持续性不仅对经济繁荣很重要,对国家安全也很重要。1814年,英国人能够火烧白宫(以及华盛顿的大部分官方建筑)的原因正在于美国政客几乎完全破坏了中央政府的财政能力。美国没有有效的海军,陆军孱弱,也没有足够能力在面临显而易见的国家紧急状态时全民动员。

特朗普承诺的“美国复兴”是一个政治骗局。民粹主义者可以许下任何承诺,包括站不住脚或者将导致灾难的政策。特朗普所提出的政策亦然:它们将破坏美国的安全,抑制美国的经济,破坏美国的金融体系。

特朗普所持有的极权民粹主义有悖于自罗马共和国灭亡以来的民主传统。极权主义者总是会不遗余力打压反对者——从肉体上,在法庭上,现在则是在Twitter上——从而让他们闭嘴。

特朗普的反对者决不能因此胆怯。他的崛起反映了1939年德国入侵波兰以来美国民主所面临的最艰巨的挑战。拒绝他的当选是保证美国和世界安全的必要条件。

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