Worker stand in a steel workshop in Zouping AFP/Getty Images

特朗普钢铁和铝关税的真正用意

发自剑桥——跟几乎所有的经济学家和大多数政策分析人员一样,我更偏爱低贸易关税或者根本没有关税。那么凭什么说美国总统特朗普决定对进口钢铁和铝征收高额关税的做法就是合理的呢?

特朗普肯定知道此举能换取来自国内钢铁和铝产地的潜在政治收益,还能在重新谈判《北美自由贸易协定》的过程中对加拿大和墨西哥两国施加压力。欧盟已宣布计划对美国出口商品进行报复,但最终它可能会坐下来谈判——并同意将现行对美国产品的超额关税削减到美国对欧洲同类产品关税的水平。

但钢铁和铝关税的真正目标其实是中国。多年来中国政府一直承诺要减少过剩的钢铁产能,从而减少以补贴价格出售给美国的多余产量。但中国的政策制定者们在保护本国钢铁和铝行业的压力之下将这一举措一再推迟。为此美国的关税将有助于平衡这些国内压力,并增加中国加速削减补贴型过剩产能的可能性。

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