Trump thank you tour Mark Makela/Getty Images

Приближающаяся эпоха краткосрочности

ВАШИНГТОН, ОКРУГ КОЛУМБИЯ – Инаугурация Дональда Трампа на пост президента Соединенных Штатов может привнести порцию краткосрочного мышления в экономическую политику в США и во всем мире. Если это произойдет, мы можем ожидать роста напряженности между официальными оценками и долгосрочными целями, особенно в денежно-кредитной политике, развитии и торговле.

Что касается денежно-кредитной политики, мне все это напоминает времена, когда я был назначен министром экономики Турции после финансового обвала 2001 года. В тот период моей первоочередной задачей было сведение показателя среднесрочной инфляции до однозначной цифры от значений в диапазоне 30-70%, которые преобладали в течение предыдущего десятилетия. С большим трудом мы приняли закон, наделяющий Центральный банк Турции независимым контролем над инструментами денежно-кредитной политики; государство и Центральный банк должны были совместными усилиями установить целевой уровень инфляции, что, на мой взгляд, являлось приемлемым соглашением.

В 2001 году инфляция находилась на уровне около 65%, а Международный валютный фонд хотел, чтобы Турция приняла 20-процентный целевой уровень инфляции на следующий год. Вместо этого мы поставили перед собой цель в 35%, а затем прошли через эту отметку, доведя уровень инфляции до 30% в 2002 году.

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