Chinese factory workers Fred Dufour/AFP/Getty Images

识破贸易保护主义的虚张声势

布鲁塞尔—近几年来,关于全球化的大部分报道都集中于它的问题,比如贸易水平下降和“大区域”贸易协定遭到抛弃等。诚然,美国总统特朗普目前已经中止了跨太平洋合作伙伴关系(TPP)——一份包括美国和日本在内的十多个环太平洋国家之间的贸易协议;并且美国与欧盟之间的跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系(TTIP)谈判也已经停止。

但新闻标题有可能起到误导作用。尽管新贸易协议可能引起争议,但保护主义取得胜利的可能性极小。即便在美国也是如此。特朗普凭借强硬对待墨西哥和中国等主要贸易伙伴的承诺赢得大选。到目前为止,特朗普政府并没有采取预示着保护主义新时代开始的行动。而在欧洲,经济开放的好处早已众所周知,与日本的自由贸易协定谈判正在进行中。

如今,大部分发达国家仍保持着相当大的开放性,这一模式有望继续存在。对保护主义政策的支持的新的暴增需要多个强力利益集团联手组织一场矛头对准现状的运动。目前,平均关税税率几可忽略(美国和欧盟都不到3%),谁会去支持提高壁垒?

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