shiller126_ANDREW HARNIKAFPGetty Images_trump g7 summit

La narrativa de Trump y la próxima recesión

Aug 30, 2019 Robert J. Shiller

NEW HAVEN – El presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, finalizó sus intervenciones en la reciente cumbre del G7 invitando a los líderes allí reunidos a celebrar la reunión del próximo año en el club campestre Doral: un club de su propiedad que se encuentra ubicado cerca de Miami. Trump describió un mundo casi de fantasía con “magníficos edificios” cuyos “salones de baile están entre los mejores y los más grandes en Florida”. Este es un ejemplo más de la narrativa pública de Trump, misma que ha estado en una senda de crecimiento al alza durante casi medio siglo.

Se puede aseverar lo antedicho tras buscar el nombre de Trump en las distintas fuentes de noticias digitales, como por ejemplo Google Ngrams. La narrativa de Trump ha crecido de manera lenta mediante la diseminación por contagio; sin embargo, ha estado creciendo durante mucho tiempo, de modo que su dominio del discurso público en Estados Unidos casi parece inverosímil.

Parte de la genialidad de Trump ha sido ir, a lo largo de toda la vida, tras el logro de las características que han sostenido el contagio narrativo: exhibir glamour, rodearse de mujeres hermosas que supuestamente lo adoran, y aparentar que mantiene una inmensa influencia.

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Robert J. Shiller

Writing for PS since 2003
129 Commentaries

Robert J. Shiller, a 2013 Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at Yale University and the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Index of US house prices. He is the author of Irrational Exuberance, Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception (with George Akerlof), and Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events.

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Elizabeth Pula Sep 7, 2019

Power controls the narrative, regardless of any message. Ra-RA-Power rules.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/sep/07/sharpiegate-trump-alabama-hurricane-dorian
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Ray Halpin Sep 6, 2019

''So far, with his flashy lifestyle, the US president has been a resounding inspiration to many consumers and investors. But his personal narrative is unlikely to survive an economic downturn, because people pull back during such periods and reassess their views and the stories they find believable.''

No they don't. Not in times like these. They simply intensify their dedication to faulty beliefs and attribute their failure to someone else - to someone who has to 'pay' for what's happened. Scapegoats will be found. Blood will be spilled. Lives will be taken.
- Victor Morris Sep 8, 2019
  
  Leadership comes in many styles, Churchill was dubbed a war monger when the Natzi,s started to rise, History tells a different story. Trump was the black eye Americans gave their politicians for there corrupt leadership. Shiller demeaning Trump misses the point, and adds to the swamp mentality that rallied Americans to vote for this outsider. When Ralph Nader ran for president he concluded (only a millionaire should run for president if we want real change), Washington hates Trump because he,s making the needed change that politicians only would do if they got paid for it, and that’s what draining the swamp means. I suspect Trump will be missed for his bold leadership at the end of his final term.
  - Jose Chacon Sep 17, 2019
    
    Condescending? maybe. Demeaning, no. Only facts and observations of recent history.
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Victor Morris Sep 3, 2019

If President Trump looses the next election, we will have a recession, if he wins we wount have one four 4 more years.
- Jose Chacon Sep 17, 2019
  
  Your statement is devoid of logic, but then again, logic escapes the Trump crowd.
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- Don Ramble Sep 3, 2019
  
  Loses ..... won’t
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eric zepp Sep 1, 2019

Since every President's personality, performance, and policies gets a thorough going through during a recession, it is with inadvertent irony, that the author says "None of this is original."
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Petey Bee Sep 1, 2019

Will a recession knock down Trump's approval ratings? Surely.

Will it cause a Democrat to get elected? Possibly, if the nominee has something compelling to offer to remedy the situation. We already know what Trump will offer: cut taxes, "get tough" with trade partners, and prevent immigrants and minorities from joining the labor force or climbing the ladder.

If Democrats' new (post Mueller) strategy to defeat Trump is to exploit an economic crisis, which is an okay strategy, then the requirement is a candidate prepared to campaign on "pocketbook" issues. A candidate who is simply "I am not the other guy" will give Trump a blank canvas to paint on.... a skilled politician uses a crisis to his advantage, and unscrupulous Republicans have outmaneuvered the conflicted modern era Dem party time and time again.
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ALAN MANAS Sep 1, 2019

Who is responsible for the lack of real per capita income growth in the U.S. over the last 30 years? Is it the politicians?

I believe the politicians are just repeating the outdated economics taught in the major U.S. economics programs of which this writer is a distinguished member.

Few of the them have made an attempt to change their fundamental beliefs in the face of the rise of China, Singapore and Japan in the post World War period.

Trump is not stupid. He has been deeply involved in global business. And maybe more importantly, he runs in a circle where he has been exposed to ideas about global business and economics that run counter to what is being taught at the elite universities.

His stances on the immigration of low skilled populations, investment, currency manipulation, trade and export manufacturing are in total agreement with those at the Chinese Ministry of Finance.

Maybe our academics should be adapting to the rise of China rather than insisting that we follow their failed economic policies into oblivion and poverty. China will not be a kind master.
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Alan Blair Sep 1, 2019

As with any leader, if there is a large failure (think Obama's worst recovery since WWII and 1.6% growth) than the public will re-evaluate his leadership. Right now Trump is at 2.7% economic growth. If he fails we can have this re-evaluation. Right now he is the best president since Reagan.
- BDalton Sep 6, 2019
  
  Alan..your post is ridiculous..and wrong. Please answer Ezra’s question to you, if you will
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- Ezra Zask Sep 1, 2019
  
  When will this false narrative cease? Obama saved capitalism (with Bernake) in 2008 and set up the conditions for a sustained growth of which Trump is only the lucky recipient. Can you name ONE thing Trump has done to sustain this growth, which began during Obama's term? The only threat to the Obama economy is the ignorance of Donald Trump who still thinks a trade deficit means we are handing money over to the Chinese, rather than we are consuming more goods than the Chinese?
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Elizabeth Pula Aug 31, 2019

RE:"because people pull back during such periods and reassess their views and the stories they find believable.".....

Regardless of pullbacks, and even though"pullbacks" is a very good word to really ponder about now, what's really more important is the real focus of what, and how your opening sentence really veils the word "propaganda". The rest of the article really continues to further veil much of the rooted implications of just what propaganda is, and how easy it really is to manipulate populations.

Your text gives a gentle nudge to the overall focus, if there is any, to the overwhelming bulk of propaganda content that is in the bucket of public-focused- predigested and regurgitated just-in-time- content disseminated for carefully or really just AI edited acceptable public media bits of opinion content organized under specific word-topic and indexed data bases.

Narratives need to have some conclusion. If the narratives themselves really have no conclusion, and no direction, then yes, there is ultimately a logical conclusion that will, and can be found by AI in the nonsensical random pile. However, the logical conclusion may be the absolute negative, and totally unexpected result due to any and all circumstances beyond even any AI control functions.

Since "any and every way", seems to be the new reality for revealing any truth about our world today, here's a couple of good reads that probe the "narrative" that may add to the logical pile:

https://www.cato.org/commentary/1920s-income-tax-cuts-sparked-economic-growth-raised-federal-revenues

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/think-trump-is-hitler-go-to-dachau/

Some facts really need to be examined about how any state looses all power to exist within any level, of any kind of any level, of any type of social contract when there is no funding left, due to no effective tax revenue streams to support a state based on any kind of social contract, at all.

Then, really examine: "Propagandists have always used ignorance to manipulate."

And, that little quote is a lead sentence from a paragraph, somewhere in that second link.
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Clivus Multrum Aug 31, 2019

It’s not Trump’s “narrative” driving the vibrant economy, it’s his economic policies.

We're in the midst of another expansion, likely to continue with minor dips along the way, that will last decades. . . . . just like Reagan’s ...... the political left knows it and it’s what’s driving them bonkers trying to explain it away.
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Elizabeth Pula Aug 30, 2019

The new boss:https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-journal-reporter-forced-to-leave-china-11567161852

is just like
the old boss: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49527707

It's really kinda funny that a lot of the people globally just don't even know, even care, or even have a clue, who the real boss really is.

Neither the old boss nor the new boss can fix any thing, and especially not alone.
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Elizabeth Pula Aug 30, 2019

I realize you have to be quite careful and write around most of any real facts, since, as Larry Summers, you are part of the "in-group" and don't want to get pushed into the outer realms of the outed-groups. So, yes, gut feelings and emotions are really not enough to keep gate-keeping any real issues.

Really now, Yardeni has totally capitulated all integrity. As have so many of the leading economists. What really matters anymore?

The narrative is totally meaningless, especially any of the narrative referring to any of the real non-action by the present US executive branch. The executive position is not a position of entitlement for a few family members to reveal how despicably they are stealing every level of integrity and every financial self-serving, and self-dealing entitlement, that they and the politicians from both major political parties can steal from the US as a nation. Presently, the last dregs of social contract by, for and of the people are being wrenched for every last shred of financial advantage for the few, probably including you.

Does it matter? Apparently not. It is what it is, which is the real business of NOTHING. Did you catch that bit of irony, in the preceding sentence?
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Robert Wolff Aug 30, 2019

I assume when Schiller talks about Trump, he is referring to the Messiah.

The Human Species started out long ago to glorify their tribal leaders, and it was only after the abuses of the Egyptian Pharaohs that Moses proclaimed the God of all things as the leader of the Jews, which represented his take on the character of the Pharaohs as pure Narcissism.

Now, in the West-world, we have the concept of God as the tribal leader who can melt mountains, and at the very least lead his own nation/tribe into supreme power and discretion over all others.

The Narcissistic Leader is defensive, rude, arrogant, and the saviour of his Tribe, just as Trump is the Messiah of the Jews and the West.

Isn't this what the West and Americans wanted?

My next comment will be about "Conquering Narcissism", defeating the Human Spirit, and what it means for those nations and their peoples that accomplish this feat.
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Ryan Darwish Aug 30, 2019

In a free democratic society Trump’s electability might be impaired as a result a losing favor with the voters. However, as Trump has already shown with his defiance of judicial and political norms, we cannot dismiss the possibility that the electoral process could be corrupted or otherwise manipulated, to subvert the will of the people.
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