بداية ترامب القوية والمفاجئة مع الهند

Jul 19, 2017 Thomas R. Pickering , Atman Trivedi

واشنطن - تم الاجتماع الاخير بين رئيس الوزراء الهندى نارندرا مودي والرئيس الامريكى دونالد ترامب، وكانت التوقعات متواضعة. وحتى الحكومة الهندية قللت من زيارة مودي للبيت الابيض كزيارة "عادية ". ومع ذلك، انتهى زعيما الدولتين الديموقراطيتين الأكثر اكتظاظا بالسكان في العالم إلى تحقيق تقدم هام، مما يدل على قوة الدبلوماسية لتحويل التحديات إلى فرص.

إن العلاقة بين الولايات المتحدة والهند، على الرغم من أنهما أصبحتا قريبتان من بعضهما البعض، كانت مثقلة بالقلق المتبادل حتى وقت متأخر. بالنسبة لإدارة ترامب، ركزت المخاوف حول قضايا مثل تزايد العجز في التجارة الثنائية، وتشريد العاملين في الولايات المتحدة من قبل المتخصصين في تكنولوجيا المعلومات الهندية، واستخدام الهند المزعوم لاتفاق باريس للمناخ لاستخراج مليارات الدولارات من المساعدات.

الهند، من جانبها، كانت قلقة على نحو متزايد بشأن نظرة إدارة ترامب الانعزالية، وعلى وجه الخصوص، بشأن التراجع واضح إزاء آسيا، حيث كانت الولايات المتحدة الضامن الرئيسي للأمن على مدى السنوات ال 70 الماضية. وقد أدت هذه التصورات إلى إضعاف الآمال في أن الهند والولايات المتحدة شريكان استراتيجيان موثوق بهما.

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Thomas R. Pickering

Writing for PS since 2012
3 Commentaries

Thomas R. Pickering, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs in the Clinton administration, served as US Ambassador to Russia, Israel, India, Jordan, and the United Nations. He is the Vice Chair of Hills & Company.

Atman Trivedi

Writing for PS since 2017
1 Commentary

Atman Trivedi has worked on India affairs at the US Commerce Department, State Department, and Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 11 in all 11 Comments on this article

j. von Hettlingen Jul 21, 2017

Thomas R. Pickering and Atman Trivedi seem amazed by Trump's "surprisingly strong start with India." Last year Trump pandered to Indian American voters by speaking Hindi in a campaign ad. He promised the Hindus in India that the US would be their "true friend" in the White House if he became president. No wonder. There are an estimated four million Indian Americans living in the US, according to 2015 census. They are among the most educated ethnic groups and generally well off.
Trump said he looked forward to working with Narendra Modi and praised India's prime minister, for his commitment to reforming the country's bureaucracy and boosting growth. And Adapting Modi’s 2014 vote-winning catchphrase as his own, his was - “This time Trump government.” His daughter-in-law Lara Trump even visited a Hindu temple in Virginia to impress Indians.
After the election, Modi congratulated Trump, saying he appreciated his "friendship" with India. Trump invited Modi to the White House, who came in June. During the joint conference he said they were "world leaders in social media" and that the future of their partnership "has never looked brighter" - with India being a "true friend and partner in addressing challenges around the world". They discussed how to strengthen cooperation in broad areas such as the economy and defence.
But can Trump be trusted? During his campaign he wooed Indian-Americans and said he loved India. Yet in December he was high-spirited after speaking to Pakistan's prime minister, Nawaz Sharif - "terrific guy, fantastic country." What do Hindus think about Trump's hypocrisy?
The authors make the point that Modi needs to build a personal relationship with his fickle US-counterpart. Ties between India and the US were excellent under Obama. The two countries paved the way for an operationalisation of "the US-India Nuclear Deal." And Obama could also convince India to curb carbon emissions and join the Paris climate change agreement.
Differences have surfaced between the two countries since Trump took office in January. He lashed out at India following the US withdrawal from the Paris agreement, arguing that India made its "participation contingent on receiving billions and billions and billions of dollars in foreign aid from developed countries".
The White House also made clear its desire to reform the H-1B visa that in the past allowed thousands of Indian technology workers to make their way to Silicon Valley. Indian firms in the US were quick to announce their readiness to hire US workers in a bid to appease Trump.
But "Modi and Trump still seem unable to see eye to eye on trade and commercial ties" American companies are less optimistic about India's economic progress. Modi's government's recent decision to place price caps on certain pharmaceutical products hurt profit margins for foreign producers, despite cutting more red tape for foreign business than almost any other government in the past. This includes signing a defence logistics agreement and entering international conventions to allow US firms the possibility of investing in India's nuclear market. But foreign firms are still struggling to do business in India.
Modi is particularly keen on preserving the good relations with the US under Trump, despite his "America First" agenda. No doubt India and the US need each other for geostrategic reasons - to address the regional dominance of their rival - China.
India is at loggerheads with China and Pakistan over territorial claims. India fumes at China's $1 trillion Belt and Road initiative that invests heavily in building infrastructure in Southwest Asia, cementing China's influence in India's backyard. Beijing has long surpassed the US as Pakistan's most important backer, and offers Islamabad an opportunity to counter the strengthened union between the US and India, whose presence in Afghanistan the Pakistani military considers an existential threat.
The Trump administration is determined to uphold the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. India "abuts crucial global shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean. And it serves as an important democratic bulwark in Asia." More over the US considers taking a harder stance against Pakistan for supporting terrorist groups in Afghanistan. But critics warn that it could push Islamabad deeper into a growing alliance with China and Russia, and lead to more instability.
The authors say, "Modi and Trump are nationalist leaders, focused on manufacturing-led domestic employment growth." Hence, there is no guarantee that the two will find "mutually beneficial common ground" to invigorate "the economic dimension of the bilateral relationship." Critics say, for India to attract the investment it needs, and to expand trade, it will first need to modernise and reform its economic governance. It also needs to update its intellectual property regime so that technology and innovations have adequate safeguards, ensuring transparency, predictability, and consistency in its corporate tax code, and providing for an efficient system of resolving disputes etc. It remains to be seen how long India will remain on Trump's radar!
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Subhash Garg Jul 21, 2017

It would be in both countries' interest to rebuild American infrastructure with the HELP of cheap Indian workers. The spinoff to India will be better training of its tradesmen and manual workers. US workers will still be involved in a big way.
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Keith W Jul 20, 2017

We will see ongoing US-India close relationship concerning China's 'Belt and Road'.
- P. Kamath Jul 20, 2017
  
  Keith: Indians and the Communist Chineese have been viewing each other with deep suspicion and mistrust since Chineese occupation of Tibet and Sino-Indian border war in 1962. India views One Way Belt One Road as one way for Chineese goods and didn't even send a delegate to its session. There has been going strong military cooperation between India an USA without much fanfare since Obama Admin. I think , it is a win-win situation for both countries.
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Jose araujo Jul 20, 2017

There are many countries that call themselves democratic, some off them also have people on its name.

Maybe India is democratic, or maybe my definition of democracy is narrower...
- Jose araujo Jul 26, 2017
  
  Thanks for the reactions... Representative Democracy is a very complex institution, that requires a large number of working institutions that India does not have.
  
  Independence of legislative, executive and judicial powers among other things are a requirement. The fact elections are held, does not mean you live in a democracy. Very few countries are truly democratic.
  
  Regarding Portugal,I unfortunately am seldom proud of my country and specially its history. We have came a long way since the revolution and we are getting towards democracy, but still not quite there.
  
  Unfortunately justice is turning out to be the most difficult part and curiously not the independence issue, but because the institutions is full of prejudices and behaviors that are not democratic.
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- jagjeet sinha Jul 21, 2017
  
  Jose
  Indeed. Democracy in India was hijacked by Dynasty and its Oligarchs.
  And yes, Democracy manifests itself differently in various forms - none yet the most perfect.
  While Europe - Greece in particular - is credited with Democracy as the World knows it, India clearly follows The Westminster Model.
  With nearly as many people in India conversant with English as in The Anglosphere - PlanetEnglish roots are safe and strong.
  The Congress Party - and its spokespeople - often still berate The British Empire, like Robert Mugabe.
  Little realising that, had India become another America Australia Canada - India would become The World's Economic Epicentre.
  The Anglosphere - with India supplying over Two Million Troops in The Two World Wars - has been the Winning Team for 500 years.
  Instead of emulating Robert Mugabe - the Template India needs is The Anglosphere.
  Trump knows that perhaps it was India that made Britain Great.
  Perhaps Trump is banking on the possibility that India can make America Great as well.
  JS
  PS.
  Had Vasco Dagama succeeded in keeping India Portuguese, perhaps Portugal would be Great too.....
  Had Portugal not handed over Bombay as Dowry to Charles II of Britain, it could be holding its best Real Estate Investment....
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- Subhash Garg Jul 21, 2017
  
  Before you get carried away... in US, 29.7% of the population elects two-thirds of the Senate, which can amend the Constitution. And you can lose the popular vote by 4-5 million but still become President. Is that democracy? India does not have these aberrations. Aldo, India is MUCH more diverse than the US, but handles it well with the multiple regional parties. The idea that India isn't democratic is just ill-informed. Note, democracy doesn't mean being soft on terrorists or tolerating communal secession.
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- P. Kamath Jul 20, 2017
  
  Jose:
  If you read a bit about India, you will notice, it has many flaws and shortcomings in practice. But, it has the following characteristics
  It is NOT run by 1. monarchy, 2. Dictators,3. Theocracy 4. Military strong men but by a multi-parliamentary system. The judiciary and legislative branches are quite independent and finally has a vibrant free press. Once in Every 5 years, parliament is formed by freely ballot box elected delegates ( MPs)! Last time, There.there were p 600 million voters cast their ballots. All these were going on since year 1947 without interruption. Sure it has many incompetent thuggish and corrupt politicians with criminal records. So also many of its judges, police, lawyers etc are corrupt and have criminal backgrounds.
  
  So , we have no choice but to call India a parliamentary democracy by default atleast. If you have a good definition to describe what constitutes an ideal democracy, please let us know!
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vivek iyer Jul 20, 2017

There is no substance to this article nor, we all suspect, any real substance to the Modi-Trump meeting. By contrast Modi's Israel visit was significant and that may impact on certain specific defence related ties with the US.
- P. Kamath Jul 20, 2017
  
  V. K. : is there a check list by which one could assess if there is any " substance" ? Politicians meet each other to gauge each other or to impress their countrymen or to have a photo- op etc. Most of the serious work gets done behind the scene before leaders meet. UjS -India military cooperation amounting to nearly $500 million has been on the anvil for years from Obama's Admin! So no big surprises here. Photo-ops that's all!
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