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兑现对中产阶级的承诺

米兰—美国总统特朗普之所以赢得大选胜利,很大程度上是因为年长白人中产和工作阶级选民没能享受到过去三十年的增长模式的巨大收益。但他的政府正准备采取的经济计划尽管不乏积极之处,却并不能为他的关键票仓带来他所许诺的经济财富之轮的倒转。

特朗普向长期面临就业形势恶化以及停滞乃至缩水的真实收入——2000年以来这一趋势有加速之势——的选民群体许下了他的承诺。随着中产阶级就业岗位的减少,中等收入群体也随之缩水,这加剧了收入极化。这一现象在美国和英国尤其严重,但实际上以各种形式在整个发达世界普遍存在着。

发达国家中产阶级所面临的经济挑战主要由两个因素导致:常规白领和蓝领岗位迅速被自动化,以及中低附加值岗位流向劳动力成本更低的国家。后一种模式不但直接压抑了可贸易部门的收入和工资增长,也通过失业劳动力的溢出效应压抑了不可贸易的服务部门。

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