us mexico border John Moore/Getty Images

如何重新谈判NAFTA

华盛顿—美国总统特朗普的政府说,它正在兑现竞选承诺,重新谈判北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)。事实上,特朗普已经重申,他准备尽快启动重新谈判进程(在“未来两周”内),在于墨西哥和加拿大开始谈判前,将由一个为期90天的国会咨询时期。果真——可能性相当大——如此的话,有必要问一问应该如何正确地进行重新谈判。

当然,特朗普也有可能一股脑儿放弃其重新谈判NAFTA的承诺,这有可能会引起许多美国人的不满,但经济学家认为有利可图。毕竟,他已经放弃了其他许多竞选承诺,包括(此乃幸事)他多次重申的在执政的“第一天”就要给中国贴上货币操纵国的标签。

另一个可能形式特朗普会尝试胁迫墨西哥——它也是特朗普重新谈判计划的主要针对目标——通过(比如)关税等方式,这将违反NAFTA和世贸组织规则。果真如此的话,最终结果将看墨西哥如何反应。而墨西哥确实有不少选择。比如,它可以将关税提高到昔日的“约束税率”(bound rates)、增加从巴西和阿根廷购买的玉米量,减少从美国购买的玉米量。

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