Tokyo stock exchange watching Trump's acceptance speech Yuya Shino/Stringer

Dar continuidad al repunte de Trump

LONDRES – La victoria de Donald Trump en las presidenciales de Estados Unidos sorprendió a la mayor parte del mundo. Pero el presidente electo sigue desafiando las expectativas. Contrariamente a lo predicho por varios expertos, las bolsas de valores han subido fuertemente desde que ganara, y los tres principales índices estadounidenses llegaron a máximos históricos a medida que subía el dólar. Explicar estas respuestas imprevistas nos podría dar un atisbo de lo que espera a los mercados en los próximos meses.

Antes de las elecciones, la mayoría de los analistas predecían que una victoria de Trump generaría una gran venta de acciones en el mercado de valores y una fuerte demanda de bonos estatales de bajo riesgo. Y, de hecho, eso fue lo que pasó cuando se comenzaron a conocer los resultados, partiendo por su resonante victoria en Florida y, tras ello, el impulso que iba ganando a medida que aumentaba su ventaja en el Colegio Electoral. Para cuando ya parecía irreversible, el índice Dow Jones de valores estadounidenses había caído 800 puntos, y el S & P 500 estaba “en su límite más bajo”. Más aún, el dólar comenzó a resbalar, y la fuga hacia los activos de mayor calidad de los mercados del Tesoro de EE.UU. hizo que los rendimientos de los bonos se desplomaran.

Pero el pesimismo de los mercados no duró mucho. Poco después de que el presidente electo diera en Nueva York su discurso de aceptación, cerca de las 3 de la mañana de la Hora estándar del este, los valores comenzaron a aumentar, y lo han seguido haciendo desde entonces, ayudando a impulsar los activos de riesgo en todo el mundo. Puesto que los capitales fluían a Estados Unidos, el dólar se fortaleció a niveles no vistos en cerca de 13 años.

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