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美国的信心经济

发自拉古纳海滩——金融市场似乎确信,最近商业和消费者对美国经济的信心回升将迅速反映在诸如GDP增长,商业投资,消费和工资等“硬”数据上。但经济学家和政策制定者却没那么肯定。而他们的疑虑是否属实则对美国和世界经济都极为重要。

特朗普的当选令积极经济情绪激增,因为他保证其政府将大力推行放松管制,税赋减免改革以及基础设施建设的政策三驾马车。共和党人在参众两院占多数的事实也进一步强化了这种积极情绪,因为这意味着特朗普不会面临奥巴马在任期间经常遭遇的那种处处被人掣肘的僵局。

商业和消费者情绪的激增反映了一个在美国人心中根深蒂固的假设:放松管制和减税总能让驱动变革的增长型创业精神得到解放。(对美国以外的一些人来说,这种假设有时更像一种迷信。)

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