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对金正恩的误判

米兰——纵观历史,政治观察家们发现被认为“疯狂”的决策者通常最难以评估。事实上,这几乎不太可能是个精神病理学问题。通常,疯狂的标签仅仅意味着其行为方式与常规分析人士所期待的截然不同。

12世纪叙利亚宗教领袖拉希德·阿尔丁·思南就是如此。第三次十字军东征期间,这位被外界称为疯子的“山中老人”通过指挥其追随者开展有针对性的暗杀成功地击退了十字军对耶路撒冷的攻势。每次执行完命令后,刺客经常在当地民众的众目睽睽下原地不动静候被捕,以确保他们的领袖因刺杀行动而收获荣誉。

当时,这样的行为在西方人看来非常难以理解。西方人开始称老人的追随者为阿萨辛派,也就是印度大麻的吸食群体,因为他们认为只有中毒才能解释如此“毫无意义地”无视自己的生命安全。但阿萨辛派绝大多数并非吸毒者。而且更重要的是,他们的所作所为取得了成功:他们最终暗杀了蒙特费拉的康拉德,并因此直接导致十字军联盟陷入政治崩溃以及击败了英国狮心王理查德。就像波洛尼厄斯形容哈姆雷特那样,老人的疯狂有其内在的逻辑。

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