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Hassan Rouhani press conference 1 yr anniversary of nuclear deal Atta Kenare/Getty Images

特朗普、伊朗和中东稳定

马德里—近几年来鲜有国际协定达成,实在不幸。在大国竞争总体压倒合作的时代,有两个显著的例外——伊朗核协议和巴黎气候协定——让我们保留着形式化的全球挑战多边应对方案仍然存在可能的希望。

但如今,唐纳德·特朗普威胁要背弃这两个协议,他当选美国总统彰显出两个协议的脆弱性。如果美国退出,或不遵守它们,就将给依靠多边协定解决国际问题的全球治理体系造成重创。

要理解这意味着什么,可以考虑伊朗和E3/EU3+3(联合国安理会五大常任理事国加上德国和欧盟)之间的联合综合行动计划(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,JCPOA)。特朗普正式就职恰逢JCPOA达成一周年,因此有必要回忆一下它是如何达成的——以及如果它被撕毁会发生什么。

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