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特朗普的魔法经济思维

华盛顿—唐纳德·特朗普终于拿出了详细的经济计划。该计划由彼得·纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro,加州大学欧文分校经济学家)和威尔伯·罗斯(Wilbur Ross,投资者)执笔,宣称特朗普总统将提振增长、降低国民债务。但该计划的假定过于离谱,看上去不像是地球人写的。如果美国果真接受了特朗普的计划,结果将是立刻发生如假包换的灾难。

该计划的核心是规模庞大的减税。作者宣称,这将提振经济增长,尽管事实表明过去类似的减税措施(如小布什执政期间)并无此类效应。这方面有大量现成的合理证据,全部被完全忽视。

特朗普的计划承认,减税本身将导致十年内岁入至少下降2.6万亿美元——在这一点上,作者也愿意引用无党派立场的税收基金会(Tax Foundation)。但特朗普团对宣称用去监管化刺激增长奇迹可以抵消岁入的下降。

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