Donald Trump is Sworn in as President Jim Bourg/Getty Images

Nouveau siècle Trump et ordre mondial à la dérive

WASHINGTON, DC – Décrivant par une expression célèbre la période située entre l’assassinat de l’archiduc François-Ferdinand en 1914 et l’effondrement de l’Union soviétique en 1991, le regretté historien britannique Eric Hobsbawm a parlé de « court XXe siècle ». Pour Hobsbawm, la fin de la guerre froide a en effet marqué l’entrée dans une ère nouvelle et distincte sur le plan des affaires mondiales.

Dans la mesure où nous bénéficions aujourd’hui d’un recul plus conséquent, il convient de reconsidérer cette qualification. En réalité, le quart de siècle qui a suivi l’effondrement du mur de Berlin constitue moins une rupture par rapport au passé que la simple poursuite – plus encore, le point culminant – de ce qu’il s’était produit auparavant. C’est bel et bien l’investiture de Donald Trump au poste de président des États-Unis qui constitue une rupture définitive par rapport au passé : c’en est désormais fini du long XXe siècle.

Il est trop tôt pour deviner ce qu’il adviendra, de la même manière que personne à l’époque ne pouvait prévoir les suites de juin 1914. Depuis la victoire électorale de Donald Trump, une prédiction collective est néanmoins possible : le monde est aujourd’hui voué à renouer avec les sphères d’influence du XIXsiècle, voyant un certain nombre d’acteurs majeurs, tels que les États-Unis, la Russie, la Chine et – n’en déplaise à certains – l’Allemagne, dominer chacun leur domaine respectif au sein d’un système international de plus en plus balkanisé.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.