Donald Trump is Sworn in as President Jim Bourg/Getty Images

Nouveau siècle Trump et ordre mondial à la dérive

WASHINGTON, DC – Décrivant par une expression célèbre la période située entre l’assassinat de l’archiduc François-Ferdinand en 1914 et l’effondrement de l’Union soviétique en 1991, le regretté historien britannique Eric Hobsbawm a parlé de « court XXe siècle ». Pour Hobsbawm, la fin de la guerre froide a en effet marqué l’entrée dans une ère nouvelle et distincte sur le plan des affaires mondiales.

Dans la mesure où nous bénéficions aujourd’hui d’un recul plus conséquent, il convient de reconsidérer cette qualification. En réalité, le quart de siècle qui a suivi l’effondrement du mur de Berlin constitue moins une rupture par rapport au passé que la simple poursuite – plus encore, le point culminant – de ce qu’il s’était produit auparavant. C’est bel et bien l’investiture de Donald Trump au poste de président des États-Unis qui constitue une rupture définitive par rapport au passé : c’en est désormais fini du long XXe siècle.

Il est trop tôt pour deviner ce qu’il adviendra, de la même manière que personne à l’époque ne pouvait prévoir les suites de juin 1914. Depuis la victoire électorale de Donald Trump, une prédiction collective est néanmoins possible : le monde est aujourd’hui voué à renouer avec les sphères d’influence du XIXsiècle, voyant un certain nombre d’acteurs majeurs, tels que les États-Unis, la Russie, la Chine et – n’en déplaise à certains – l’Allemagne, dominer chacun leur domaine respectif au sein d’un système international de plus en plus balkanisé.

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