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The Impeachment Trap

Oct 1, 2019 Eric Posner

America’s Democrats have made a serious mistake by launching impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. They are replaying the Republican impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998, a futile exercise that damaged Republicans, enhanced Clinton’s power, and caused institutional damage as well.

CHICAGO – America’s Democrats have made a serious mistake by launching impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. They are replaying the Republican impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998, a futile exercise that damaged Republicans, enhanced Clinton’s power, and caused institutional damage as well.

The common factor of the two impeachments is that it was clear from the start that the US Senate would never convict, which requires a two-thirds majority. The 45 Senate Democrats were not happy that Clinton perjured himself before a grand jury, obstructed justice, and conducted an extramarital sexual affair with a White House intern, Monica Lewinsky. But they did not believe that this behavior was grounds for removal from office. The behavior was not sufficiently egregious to overcome their political loyalty to a president who remained popular with voters.

Republicans leading the impeachment knew that few if any Senate Democrats would vote to convict (in fact, none did). But Republicans hoped to embarrass the Democrats and damage Clinton, believing that they would pick up some seats in the November 1998 election by launching impeachment proceedings before then. They were wrong. Clinton’s popularity rose after the impeachment proceedings ended. Most Americans believed that impeachment was a mistake.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 56 in all 56 Comments on this article

Gaius Mucius Nov 13, 2019

"The president’s behavior, as odious as it is, is a far cry from Richard Nixon’s involvement in espionage against the Democratic Party "
Actually, President Trump was doing his duty by encouraging Ukraine to investigate Biden corruption and Ukrainian interference in the US 2016 election.
President Trump's behavior was a far cry from the Obama Administrations involvement in espionage against the Trump campaign.
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Cary Fraser Oct 22, 2019

The Republican party chose a candidate of dubious distinction and unable to grasp the challenges of working within the complex structure and norms that govern the office that is the Presidency. In effect, the consummate Know-Nothing. Less than 50 percent of the votes actually cast made him eligible to win the Presidency - given the opportunity for Republicans to gerrymander constituencies after the 2010 census and the arcane provisions/structure of the Electoral college.
His record in office is a comi-tragedy foretold.
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Cary Fraser Oct 7, 2019

Trump is a drastic mistake and the Democrats need to assert the constitutional provisions needed to bring sanity back into the political process. The alternative is simply a continuation of the buffoonery that has increasingly become the leitmotif of the Republican party.
- Aaron Cohn Oct 21, 2019
  
  The american people chose Trump. So, you're saying your opinion is more important than the american people. Who died and appointed you God on high?
  
  Impeachment and removal requires an impeachable offense, a "high crime and misdemeanor". In the case of Clinton, it was "perjury". And commission of perjury is particularly corrosive to the rule of law when committed by the individual responsible for enforcing the laws, the chief law enforcement officer of the land. What does that say to the thousands of people called on every day to put their hands on the good book and tell the truth in court?! That was unarguably, a crime, for which he was disbarred in Arkansas and before the US SCOTUS. You can argue whether it's a "high crime", but there's a persuasive argument it was.
  
  So what is Trump's "high crime"... Let's make it easier for you. Where is the CRIME?!
  I'm waiting. Crickets are chirping. Or are you of the Adam Schiff "you show me the man. i'll show you the high crime." ilk.
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- Peter Schaeffer Oct 13, 2019
  
  Let's stick with 'Orange Man Bad'. That's a much more sophisticated and intellectual take on the Trump presidency.
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joel bernard Oct 7, 2019

I'm absolutely astonished that Posner and many commenters on his post think there was anything remotely similar about the impeachments of Bill Clinton and (possibly) of Donald Trump.

In 1997, the American people recognized that the Republicans in Congress were trying to remove a Democratic president because of private sexual acts that he had lied about to save his political career. Yes, he committed legal perjury. About acts between consenting adults (read Lewinsky's tell-all memoir!) that most people would have lied about had their marriages and careers been at stake. To a Special Counsel whose alleged mandate was to investigate an entirely unrelated issue that was proven to be fiction (and despite the fact that he caused to be imprisoned an innocent woman, Susan McDougal, because she refused to perjure herself). Clinton emerged more popular after impeachment than before.

Trump is a compulsive liar, a business cheat, and a sadistic bully who has actively sought the aid of foreign countries for his political advantage. Even many of his supporters acknowledge Trump's bad character; they just see off-setting benefits. A majority of the American people disapprove of him.

Let's wait until after the 2020 Election to make a final judgment. But I really don't think the American people are stupid enough not to understand the distinction between Bill Clinton's impeachment and Donald Trump's.
- Peter Schaeffer Oct 13, 2019
  
  Bill Clinton lied under oath. Donald Trump asked a foreign government to look for evidence of criminal wrongdoing by Democrats. With Biden's son taking $50K a month for basically nothing, Trump's request was hardly baseless or inappropriate.
  
  Big difference.
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Joe Ryan Oct 6, 2019

Does it follow from what Prof. Posner says that dictatorship (which is what we're talking about) is okay if it's popular, or at least has a blocking minority in favor?

Given that removal from office is amply justified, the fact that it's unpopular is, if anything, an additional reason to advocate it.

And, who knows? Majority Leader McConnell went nuclear on confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court Justices. Maybe he'll accept a majority sentiment for removal, which is at least conceivable, and move to make it unanimous.
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Ron Jacob Oct 6, 2019

Nancy Pelosi is smart. She's been around and knows how things work in DC. Right from the get-go, she has been against impeachment. But she had to go along with the House for the reasons mentioned in this article. This move is likely to backfire and strengthen Trump for 2020. And because of Trump's tweetmanship, the polls are already saying that most people believe Biden was guilty of corruption (the Democrats should focus on corruption charges against Trump and his children but that's a different story). Trump's aim is to get Biden out of the picture so his main rival will be Elizabeth Warren - yes, "Goofy Warren" (unfortunately, Trump's nicknames for his opponents tend to stick) - thus giving him an easy victory. We'll see how it plays out.
- Andrew Jordan Oct 26, 2019
  
  Well as of today (26th October) the polls are actually saying the opposite. Trump's approval ratings are falling and there is a clear majority of Americans who are pro impeachment.
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Elizabeth Pula Oct 6, 2019

The propaganda strategists and strategies behind the present administration
sure overwhelmly confirm your stance. However, do go back to the original writings in the
Federalist Papers, and you will find, that if the struggle for balance of power is not followed with the impeachment process, then the significant risk of "DICTATORSHIP" is the most significant risk that this very shaky quaking democracy in the US faces.

The present administration's attacks on freedom of the press, are really attacks on the fundamental concepts of freedom to speak at all for citizens in the United States. If CONCEPTS of the founding principles of the US constitution are further eroded, as they have so successfully been eroded by leadership of both political parties, then citizens will effectively not even have the memories of any words that mean anything. This administration is successfully on the path to destroy every shred that remains of the SOCIAL CONTRACT, and essential understanding of what that SOCIAL CONTRACT means.

We cannot support further destruction of what remains of the national state of reasonable functioning citizens. The fight really is NOT a fight between the corrupt members of Congress. The fight is a fight to end the corruption that the corrupt members have extended and are promoting, especially by supporting and reinforcing political destructive efforts of the present executive administration.

History is rhyming loud and clear by promoting CRIMING!
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Gerald O'Connell Oct 6, 2019

Since Posner's piece was written Trump has responded in an increasingly unhinged way, making himself look more and more impeachable. Democrats may have learned little from the Clinton impeachment but it looks as though Trump has learned a great deal less. If things continue on this trajectory then Senate Republicans will be painted by Trump into an ever tighter corner. At some point they are likely to conclude that it is just too damaging to continue to support Trump, especially if he fails sufficiently to incriminate Pence. The prospect of Pelosi as president is likely to sustain Senate support for Trump until he is taken away in a straitjacket...
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Petey Bee Oct 2, 2019

Unfortunately, the author is correct.

Dumb move by House Democrats, with nearly all of them going on record in support of the impeachment investigation (if not in support of actual impeachment in all cases). This will surely be used against them in 2020 House election, figure a price of 5-15 seats for this, depending on how well or how poorly the substance of the investigation holds up over the coming year.
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Terence Alexander Oct 2, 2019

Democrats thought the Clinton impeachment was misguided because the nature of the activities that led to the impeachment were private in nature (i.e., an affair). The Nixon impeachment had to do with burglary and cover up of the burglary. The burglary was not viewed as that serious, the cover up was the crime. In Trump's case, the crime seems to me to much more severe--an attempt to use the power of the presidency to induce a foreign country to help collect dirt on a potential candidate of the opposition party. The cover up, such as is currently known, has less to do with Trump and more to do with his advisers and cabinet secretaries (Pompeo and Barr). I think that people will also see this as more serious than the Nixon or Clinton impeachments.
- Peter Schaeffer Oct 13, 2019
  
  Bill Clinton lied under oath. Donald Trump asked a foreign government to look for evidence of criminal wrongdoing by Democrats. With Biden's son taking $50K a month for basically nothing, Trump's request was hardly baseless or inappropriate.
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Doug Field Oct 2, 2019

DJT's conduct on the call with the president of Ukraine was not odious, it was right and proper.

Such calls have been routinely made by chief executives before him and will surely be made by those who follow. To even suggest this is the stuff of impeachment is madness and sets a truly stupid precedent.
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george Oct 2, 2019

One impeachment was because of a sexual act between consenting adults. The other an attempt to destroy our election process.

No comparison.
- Peter Schaeffer Oct 13, 2019
  
  Bill Clinton lied under oath. Donald Trump asked a foreign government to look for evidence of criminal wrongdoing by Democrats. With Biden's son taking $50K a month for basically nothing, Trump's request was hardly baseless or inappropriate.
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- Aaron Cohn Oct 4, 2019
  
  NO!!! Mr. Clinton was impeached for perjury. Furthermore he was disbarred in Arkansas and before the SCOTUS for that same behavior, in judicial proceedings as opposed to political ones. Frankly, I couldn't care less about the subject matter of the lie. If he'd lied about his favorite color, in my opinion, it's just as bad. In that act, you had the chief law enforcement officer of the land lying under oath. That has a corrosive effect on rule of law in the country when thousands of other mere mortals have to give testimony under oath in judicial proceedings every day.
  
  In Trump's case, there simply is no crime, let alone a "high crime". Instead, this looks like a preemptive attempt to distract from an upcoming IG report concerning the origins of the Russia probe. There are no grounds for impeachment whatsoever here.
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- B W Oct 2, 2019
  
  Actually, Clinton was impeached for committing multiple felonies which included perjury and obstruction of justice, both of which were conclusions of the Starr Report. Trump is (if it happens) being impeached for quid pro quo abuse of power for a conversation in which he made no quid pro quo offers and where there is plenty of evidence that the Ukrainian president did not even know that aid was being withheld. Can't have a quid pro quo without the quid. So essentially, he's being impeached because he cannot be beaten on the issues. So you are correct on one count, there is no comparison.
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- Michael Public Oct 2, 2019
  
  @George. I wish that were so. Trump only 'asked for something' while Clinton 'actually got something'. There is no moral norms in politics, because it concerns more with power than with ethics.
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- Eric Kaumheimer Oct 2, 2019
  
  They may have been consenting adults but the context was also that it was the top executive of an organization and an intern. No amount of consent would make that acceptable in American business, but I accept that it might not be impeachable. However the more troubling element was that he lied in an official court proceeding and did so for the exact reason that many do it: to help win in the case. While he was the chief law enforcement officer of the country. Good grief.
  - Peter Schaeffer Oct 13, 2019
    
    Bill Clinton lied under oath. Donald Trump asked a foreign government to look for evidence of criminal wrongdoing by Democrats. With Biden's son taking $50K a month for basically nothing, Trump's request was hardly baseless or inappropriate.
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- bulthompsn Oct 2, 2019
  
  The attempt tot destroy the election process was all by the Clinton campaign.
  - Michael Public Oct 2, 2019
    
    @bul. If we are bringing tots into this, Trump and Guliani are a two of a kind.
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Constance Underfoot Oct 2, 2019

Furthermore, and more simply, you need an overwhelming support of the people as impeachment is overturning the will of those that voted for him. And in the midst of an election no less? Of course a strong percentage of Democrats will be for it, and Republicans against. But if you're truly an independent, I can't imagine trying to usurp the will of the people will go over well with them. And where the independents go en masse, so goes the election.
- Michael Public Oct 2, 2019
  
  There are four of them out of a hundred. Independents can side with or be swayed by republicans too.
  - B W Oct 2, 2019
    
    There are more independents in the country than either Democrats or Republicans. Not sure where you get your information. But it's wrong.
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Robert Wolff Oct 1, 2019

The real problem is that we are in a Zero-Sum-Game with China. A Zero-Sum-Game always ends up in the Thucydides Trap: Nothing by either nation can go according to plan because the primary strategy of each opponent (in this case, China and the US/West) is to subvert the other's plan for dominance, else they cannot carry out their own plan for dominance.

So far, neither the US/West nor China is willing to compromise their own plan for future dominance (which is the basis of the current Zero-Sum-Game.)

Thucydides was a very smart man.

What this leads into is a military-economic complex in Sino-Russian space (as allies) that must support the economic plans for Sino-Russian dominance, and a military-economic complex in US-Western space (allied against the Sino-Russian alliance), each attempting to stop the subversion of their plan by their opponent. This eventually grows into obvious subversive activities by both camps, which can only be overcome by combined intelligence/military capability by the winning camp.

We are at it again. The last time was WWII, and thereafter President Eisenhower warned against the rise of the military-industrial(economic) complex.

We (as a species) learned nothing from WWII.

(I've seen this whole movie before.)
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Robert Wolff Oct 1, 2019

All comes down to the necessity to replace Nancy Pelosi, and her prevailing philosophy that what this is really all about is the victims (US) versus the victimizers (THEM), as Speaker of the House. She wants to prosecute the victimizers of the victims over last million years, and wants it done TODAY!

This is an extremely divisive and unsanitary philosophy for the Speaker of the House to maintain. It certainly does not promote the longevity of the American nation.

The real issues are far more complex than that, and far more important than that. We need someone with a bigger IQ to lead the Congress, who can consider and weigh complex political matters and conclude what is best for the American people.

The prosecution of Trump on each action he takes contrary to the wishes of the Democratic (Socialist) Party is now happening on almost a daily basis. The divisiveness between Democrats and Trump has now reached crisis proportions, that threaten the Unity of the American Peoples and could divide US into warring camps if the differences between Democrat leaders and the Trump Administration are not resolved.
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Ray B Oct 1, 2019

Elections was how the founders decided to get rid of bad politicians in government pure and simple. 2 years for Congressman, 6 years for Senators and 4 years for President. Every two years offers the country an opportunity for political change. If they impeach Trump and figure out how to get 66% of Senators without a specific crime and nullify 63M votes then Kelly bar the door. The Washington will pay a terrible price. After 3 years and millions of dollars without any specific crime (its amazing) the American people see right through this charade . Congressman Green said it quite elegantly.. We cannot beat him during an election we need to impeach him now. That is all that needs to be said about this situation. America is awake.
- Ed Grimley Oct 1, 2019
  
  Wow! this comment shows how out of touch most conservatives are with America. Impeachment is no longer an option, it is a duty. Republicans have no sense of duty to America. They stopped working for America back in 2008. An abuse of power must be reconciled by congress. We can not function as a country until this is addressed. Anyone who cannot see this has their head in the sand. America is waiting and the Democrats are the only ones trying.
  - Peter Schaeffer Oct 13, 2019
    
    Pelosi has said 'we must impeach Trump to prevent him from be reelected'. Her contempt for Democracy is breathtaking. Of course, she is only saying what a great many Democrats believe.
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  - Mike John Oct 2, 2019
    
    This has nothing to do with conservative or liberal, this is about reality. This whole impeachment has been driven from the moment Trump was elected. It appears as it appears, a Democratic Party partisan drive that is all about their desire to either hurt or eliminate Trump. Why not make your case during this election season and let Americans vote?? Congress is just to partisan. I think we can handle the decision for ourselves. I will respect the decision of the voters. Will the Democrats??
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  - B W Oct 2, 2019
    
    This comment shows how much you are in the bubble of the Democrats. Most Americans are tired of this crap. If Mueller had come back with anything, you would have a point. The fact that Adam Schiff has to create a narrative out of whole cloth to paraphrase the conversation between Trump and the Ukrainian president instead of just reading the transcript is all you need to know. I don't think the conversation was appropriate, but that is not grounds for impeachment. Besides, if you are right about how out of touch conservatives are with America, you should have no problem winning the White House next year. Why go through the humiliation of impeaching the president only to have him triumph in the Senate, which if you don't think will happen, then you are truly naive.
    - Peter Schaeffer Oct 13, 2019
      
      Adam Schiff is proven liar. He claimed many times that had "proof" of collusion between Trump and Russia. Somehow Muller did't find it. He was lying all along and he still is lying. Sadly, the dishonesty of Adam Schiff is one of the few things we have undeniable facts for.
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  - Nick Brenon Oct 2, 2019
    
    Yes, I agree, Democrats are very trying....
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Paul Ross Oct 1, 2019

Perhaps the biggest difference between Clinton and Trump is popularity. Clinton as the author noted was popular, and Trump clearly is not, at least not outside his base.

If the Democrats play is to expose Trump's unsavory and impeachable conduct to America and force the GOP to cover for him in order to impress upon undecided voters that the GOP can't be trusted to govern effectively, then the risk is acceptable in their calculations. They control the House, and were brought to power by an anti-Trump/GOP backlash, that probably will not fade and only strengthen if the Senate does not convict.

At least that's the theory.
- bulthompsn Oct 2, 2019
  
  Trump is popular. Trump had more votes than Clinton did in 1992 even adjusted for population growth.
  - Michael Public Oct 2, 2019
    
    "had" - this is the key word in your sentence. Polling companies track ongoing popularity and Trump is as unpopular right now as the author claims.
    - B W Oct 2, 2019
      
      He's as popular now as he was when he was elected. Just look at the polls. I would be quite surprised if he receives a smaller percentage of the electorate this time around. I don't vote because I'm a Republican in California. But I will vote this time and I'm sure I'm not alone. We'll see how much support he has lost among those who voted for him last time. I doubt it will be much. And impeaching him will only increase the likelihood that people who don't like the usurpation of the will of the electorate will come out and vote for him. We'll see.
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Jay Kahn Oct 1, 2019

The crime under investigation is an attempt to manipulate the upcoming election, yet Posner argues that the upcoming election is the solution, ignorant of the very obvious inherent contradiction. If Trump closed every polling location in every blue district, Posner's prescription would be for Democrats to wait and vote Trump out.
- Michael Public Oct 2, 2019
  
  Your two examples differ in degree. By analogy, you argue that giving your kid a hiding is wrong because murder is wrong.
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Marc Laventurier Oct 1, 2019

To paraphrase, 'history does not repeat itself but it's often slime'. And Mr. Posner oozes it in this pass offered to the NY thug Fat Donny caught in the act. The US was born and wallows in the greasiest hypocrisy, but the House could come up just for one gulp of fresh air by ritually framing this abuse of office as such and proceeding as if it mattered.
- Michael Public Oct 2, 2019
  
  The problem with raising principles above practicality in politics is you will end up being a good man ruled by bad men. The price can be high.
  - Marc Laventurier Oct 2, 2019
    
    It's superb practical politics - (not that I personally care). As I write, Fat Donny is melting down along with the stock market. Check it out.
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Mirek Fatyga Oct 1, 2019

History rhymes ,but she does not repeat. Trump may be impeached, and he is unlikely to be convicted. This is immaterial. We are well beyond an ordinary political calculation, because the United States is in an extraordinary ,at least by the standards of the last 50 years, political crisis. Impeachment in the Democratic House, followed by acquittal in the Republican Senate will give the voters a clear picture of where the parties stand. it is up to the voters then to decide where they stand, and whether banana republic is the future for themselves and their children that they prefer. The rest ,as they say, will be history.
- Michael Public Oct 2, 2019
  
  I live in a banana republic, and a democratically elected one at that. Voters are a strange animal, after all, Hitler was voted in one of the most rational and morally conscious countries in the world.
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- P. Kamath Oct 2, 2019
  
  Good comment indeed!
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