North Korea Ed Jones/Getty Images

هل يحتاج دونالد ترمب لاستراتيجية كبرى؟

طوكيو ــ تتألف العلاقات الدولية، سواء اقتصادية أو سياسية، من مزيج من التعاون والمنافسة، شأنها في ذلك شأن أي تفاعل إنساني. يتميز شق "التعاون" بأنه يفيد كل الأطراف المعنية، سواء بمساهمته في دعم السلام العالمي، أو تعزيز النمو والرخاء من خلال التجارة الحرة. أما شق "التنافس" فيخلق مخاطر حقيقية، بداية من العوائق الاقتصادية إلى الحرب والدمار البيئي. فلماذا لا يزيد التعاون بين الدول؟

تعتمد إجابة هذا السؤال جزئيا على ما يسمى بمعضلة السجناء. فربما تتوهم الدول أنها بخيانتها لشركائها ستتمكن من الحصول على "صفقة" أفضل لأنفسها. ومع مواجهتها لإغراء الخداع، قد تصبح هذه الدول قلقة أو حتى مرتابة من خيانة شركائها الذين يواجهون نفس الإغراء. ومن ثمّ، يزداد لديها إغراء البدء بخيانة شركائها.

وبصفة عامة فإن نظرية الألعاب هذه، التي تقدم نماذج رياضية للتنازع والتعاون بين صانعي القرار العقلانيين، لم تقدم الكثير فيما يتعلق بالاستراتيجيات المقبولة للتغلب على هذه المعضلة، ناهيك عن استراتيجية مثلى لحل النزاعات الفعلية. لكن بفضل روبرت أكسيلرود، الأستاذ بجامعة ميتشجان، ربما لم يعد الأمر كذلك.

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