Comments 7

特朗普的大战略

Jul 30, 2018 Brahma Chellaney

柏林—美国总统特朗普不具有战略性思维，这正在影响长期关系，危害全球秩序，加速美国全球影响力的衰落——越来越多的人这样认为。但这一主张并不像其支持者——特别是特朗普的政治对手和美国主流媒体批评者——所认为的那样显而易见。

美国的相对衰落在特朗普执政前便早已是一个热门话题。这个过程始于美国通过冷战成为世界唯一的超级大国后，开始穷兵黩武，对全球经济和安全事务大包大揽，结果是战线拉得过长。

美国的“帝国过度伸张”首次出现于里根总统执政时期，军事支出遽然膨胀。2003年，小布什总统发动了入侵和占领伊拉克的战争，美国军事支出也达到了危机水平——这是一个分水岭事件，它给美国的国际形象造成了不可挽回的伤害。

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Curtis Carpenter Jul 31, 2018

Donald Trump's "grand strategy," to the extent that there is one, was stated crisply by Steve Bannon some time ago:

“We got elected on Drain the Swamp, Lock Her Up, Build a Wall,” he said. “This was pure anger. Anger and fear is what gets people to the polls.” Bannon added, “The Democrats don’t matter. The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with sh*t.”

Fear and anger form the foundation of everything Trump thinks and does: his "grand strategy". His only objective is to avoid being exposed.
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P. Kamath Jul 30, 2018

Trump needs a good word from any one nowadays! Thanks professor sahib!
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Bernhard Kopp Jul 30, 2018

The US administration is substantially increasing its military spending, and budget deficit and national debt are going through the roof. The author suggests that 'America is reviving its global power', and a sentence later 'the administration seems eager to roll-back imperial overreach'. Even in Nato, the US has no intention to reduce its spending, and save the US taxpayer anything. With quite some justification, the US administration just wants the European Nato members to spend more on defense and purchase more US military hardware in the process. Last year we heard a lot about 'repeal and replace' but we have not heard that there is any progress to the better. Before too long, increased consumer prices from tariffs and rising interest rates may exceed the benefits of the 'tax reform' for the average American. Singapore was a spectacle but nobody knows yet if anything good can come from it. Helsinki was rather funny, the Russians had a field day. Any expectation that Messrs. Trump/Mills/Navarro could outsmart the Chinese is mistaken. MAGA is gaga.
- lt lee Jul 31, 2018
  
  In Singapore, US under Trump had been sidelined on Korean Peninsula denuclearization. The task had been handed over to the two Koreas per their PMJ Declaration. Agree that Helsinki was rather funny.
  
  Brahma Chellaney did not mention India role in Trump's "grand strategy". To be sure, India would still be US designated balancer against China. It has been so since Bush Jr. Nevertheless India is likely to be the biggest victim of Trump's as well as other nations' protectionism. Of courst, it would continue to export. However, it would be a lot more difficult for a large nation to achieve export led economic development.
  
  In addition, a weak and frustrated India is likely to be more aggressive when dealing with China. The West including the US certainly don't mind watching the two Asian giants getting at each other.
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- P. Kamath Jul 31, 2018
  
  Well said! Trump likes to run affairs of USA like what he did in his real state business -a hands on and take bull by the horn approach! Let us see if voters other than his followers fall for his charm in 2010!
  - Bernhard Kopp Aug 2, 2018
    
    Some voters still will, for different reasons. Tax cuts, regulatory rollback, conservative judges, and the large number of people who are fascinated by a 'wrecking ball at work', and may not understand that politics is not a zero-sum game, 'I win because I am the mightiest - you loose'. This will not work with Kim/NK, not with Putin, not with Iran and not with the Europeans. And, it will harm those segments of the US-electorate the most, who have been fascinated by a maniacal narcissist.
    - P. Kamath Aug 2, 2018
      
      B.K.: But, I still have faith in American democracy and institutions.
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特朗普的大战略

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