Patrik Stollarz/AFP/Getty Images

Le président Trump est mal inspiré à l'égard de l'Allemagne

MUNICH – Donald Trump accuse l'Allemagne d'une manipulation du taux de change qui serait à l'origine de son énorme excédent des comptes courants. Il se trompe. L'excédent de la balance commerciale de ce pays, 8% de son PIB, est certes élevé, trop élevé, mais il ne résulte pas d'une manipulation du taux de change. Les véritables coupables sont la bulle inflationniste liée au crédit au sud de l'Europe, la politique expansionniste de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) et les produits financiers vendus un peu partout dans le monde par les banques américaines. Au lien de critiquer l'Allemagne, le président Trump ferait bien de se pencher sur les institutions de son propre pays.

L'excédent commercial de l'Allemagne tient au faible prix auquel elle vend ses produits. En ce sens Trump a raison. L'euro est sous-évalué par rapport au dollar et l'Allemagne vend trop peu cher ses produits à ses partenaires commerciaux de la zone euro. Cette sous-évaluation dope la demande extérieure pour ses produits, tandis qu'elle est réticente à importer autant qu'elle exporte.

L'euro vaut actuellement 1,07 dollars, alors que selon l'OCDE sa valeur à parité de pouvoir d'achat est de 1,29 dollars. Autrement dit l'euro est sous-évalué de 17%. Par ailleurs, si l'on se réfère à un calcul de Goldman Sachs datant de 2013 et que l'on soustrait l'appréciation en termes réels depuis cette date on trouve que les produits allemands sont sous-évalués de 19% au sein de la zone euro. Dans l'ensemble ils sont sous-évalués d'un tiers.

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