Patrik Stollarz/AFP/Getty Images

特朗普的德国必修课

发自慕尼黑——美国总统特朗普最近发言批评德国的经常账户巨额盈余,认为这是德国操纵货币的结果,但这次他搞错了。虽然德国相当于GDP8%的外部盈余确实庞大——但却与货币操纵无关。真正的罪魁祸首其实是南欧地区的通胀信贷泡沫,欧洲央行的扩张政策和美国银行向世界出售的金融产品。因此与其责怪德国,特朗普不如将注意力放在本国机构身上。

德国贸易顺差的根源其实是德国货物的售价过于低廉。在这一点上特朗普政府基本上是对的。欧元相对于美元来说太便宜了,德国为欧元区内贸易伙伴制定的价格又太便宜了。这种低估增加了其他国家对德国货物的需求,同时又令德国不愿进口跟其出口额相当的货品。

欧元目前与美元的比价为1:1.07,但经合组织测算的1欧元购买力平价相当于1.29美元。这意味着欧元被低估了17%。而如果采用高盛公司自2013年开始应用的计算公式作为基准并撇除自那以后的实际升值的话,德国在欧元区内又会再便宜19%。总而言之,这意味着德国的货币被低估了近1/3。

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