Zach Gibson/Getty Images

特朗普赤字

坎布里奇—带紧缩思维的保守派政府总是偏好财政审慎,而再分配导向的进步派将赤字视为世界上最大的免费午餐,这是后金融危机时代的一个神话。这一简单化的视角也许包含着一丝真理,但它完全没有抓住赤字的政治经济学的真正核心。

事实是,只要某一政党牢牢控制了政府,它就有很大的激励借钱推行它的重点日程,知道它未必要为此买单。因此,大可以期待美国当选总统特朗普的政府——不管它是否保守——将积极地使用财政赤字来为它的税收和支出重点项目融资。

思考民主国家政府预算赤字的最准确的框架由意大利学者阿尔贝托·阿莱西纳(Alberto Alesina)和圭多·塔贝里尼(Guido Tabellini),以及几乎同时的两位瑞典人托尔斯腾·佩尔森(Torsten Persson)和拉尔斯·斯文森(Lars Svensson)在20世纪 80年代末提出。他们的方法在细节上有些许不同,但基本思想是一致的:你在有能力的时候借钱给你的朋友。如果后继乏钱,那么轮到反对党上台执政时,呃,一切都太糟糕了。

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