Eagle test in Nevada Ethan Millter/Getty Images

Crecer sin el liderazgo de Estados Unidos

BEIJING – La elección de Donald Trump ha sido recibida en todo el mundo con un desconcierto y un miedo justificables. Su victoria -luego de una campaña electoral viciosa y carente de datos- puso por el suelo la marca de la democracia norteamericana. Pero, si bien Trump es impulsivo y ocasionalmente vengativo -una mezcla potencialmente fatal en un mundo ya frágil-, su elección debería ser un incentivo para cuestionar ideas fallidas y avanzar más allá de una dependencia excesiva del liderazgo global inevitablemente imperfecto de Estados Unidos.

En muchas áreas de políticas, lo que Trump hará en verdad es imposible de saber: allí reside el riesgo. Pero, en el caso de la política económica, hay una cosa que es clara: la política fiscal será más relajada. La forma exacta del estímulo probablemente resulte ineficiente y regresiva: los grandes recortes impositivos para los ricos exacerbarán la desigualdad que ayudó a atizar el éxito de Trump. Y sus planes de gasto en infraestructura -basados en los créditos impositivos a la inversión- tal vez sólo tengan un impacto limitado.

Pero la orden de un cambio de políticas -de la monetaria al estímulo fiscal- tiene sentido. En todas las economías desarrolladas, la combinación de políticas prevaleciente en los últimos seis años -ajuste fiscal y condiciones monetarias excesivamente expansivas- ha resultado en un crecimiento mediocre del ingreso pero en grandes aumentos de la riqueza para los que ya eran ricos. Si el estímulo fiscal de Trump provoca una reformulación de las políticas en otras partes, el resultado podría ser beneficioso.

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