Eagle test in Nevada Ethan Millter/Getty Images

أكبر من الزعامة الأميركية

بكين ــ استُقبِل انتخاب دونالد ترامب في مختلف أنحاء العالم بقدر مُبَرَّر من الحيرة والخوف. فقد أتلف فوزه ــ في أعقاب حملة انتخابية شرسة وخالية من الحقائق ــ سُمعة الديمقراطية الأميركية. ولكن برغم اندفاع ترامب ورغبته الانتقامية في بعض الأحيان ــ وهو خليط فتاك في عالَم هش بالفعل ــ فإن انتخابه لابد أن يكون حافزا لتحدي الأفكار الفاشلة وتجاوز الاعتماد المفرط على الزعامة الأميركية المنقوصة حتما للعالم.

في العديد من مجالات السياسة العامة، لا أحد يعرف ماذا قد يفعل ترامب في واقع الأمر: وهنا مكمن الخطر. ولكن بوسعنا أن نتبين أمرا واحدا بوضوح عندما يتعلق الأمر بالسياسة الاقتصادية: فسوف تكون السياسة المالية أقل إحكاما. ومن المرجح أن يكون الشكل الدقيق للحافز غير فعّال ورجعيا: إذ أن التخفيضات الضريبية الكبيرة لصالح الأثرياء ستؤدي لا محالة إلى تفاقم مشكلة التفاوت بين الناس، وهي المشكلة التي ساعدت في نجاح ترامب. أما خطط الإنفاق على البنية الأساسية ــ اعتمادا على الإعفاءات الضريبية للاستثمار ــ فربما تخلف تأثيرا محدودا.

ولكن اتجاه التحول في السياسات ــ من التحفيز النقدي إلى التحفيز المالي ــ منطقي ومعقول. ففي مختلف الاقتصادات المتقدمة، أسفر مزيج السياسات الغالِب على مدار السنوات الست المنصرمة ــ القيود المالية المحكمة والظروف النقدية الشديدة التساهل ــ عن نمو متواضع للدخول ولكن زيادات ضخمة في الثروات لصالح من هم أثرياء بالفعل. وإذا استفز حافز ترامب المالي إعادة النظر في السياسات في أماكن أخرى، فسوف يُفضي هذا إلى بعض الفوائد.

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