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Quattro certezze sull’economia populista

MILANO – Il successo della globalizzazione economica necessita di schemi di crescita abbastanza riusciti nei singoli paesi. Tale dinamica ha caratterizzato i 30 anni dopo la Seconda guerra mondiale: i tassi di crescita erano relativamente alti in diversi paesi; i loro benefici erano ampiamente condivisi tra i paesi; e l’aumento di paesi in via di sviluppo ha ridotto la disuguaglianza globale. Tale periodo è stato probabilmente il culmine della globalizzazione.

Naturalmente, la globalizzazione è proseguita negli anni ’70 e oltre. Ma gli schemi di crescita sottostante sono cambiati. Trainati dalle contrattazioni sui costi del personale, che sono parte integrante della globalizzazione economica, e dall’aumento di tecnologie digitali disgregativa, i lavori manifatturieri della classe media delle economie avanzate sono scomparsi, il reddito medio è rimasto fermo ed è cresciuta la polarizzazione lavoro-reddito, anche se la crescita del Pil è rimasta solida. Questo nuovo modello – che ha continuato a persistere negli anni ’80 e ’90, e ha subito un’accelerazione dopo il 2000 – ha portato all’aumento brusco della disuguaglianza, indebolendo le fondamenta della globalizzazione.

Le risposte dei paesi sono state le più varie. Alcuni hanno adottato delle misure per ridurre la disuguaglianza, come la redistribuzione tramite il sistema fiscale, la previdenza sociale e i sistemi di formazione, vari tipi di protezione sociale, e sostegno per l’efficace riqualificazione professionale. La potenza di tali sforzi tende a essere plasmata dalle norme culturali, dal potere contrattuale istituzionale del lavoro, dal livello di fiducia tra lavoro e aziende, e dall’influenza della ricchezza individuale e aziendale sulla politica.

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