nyse trump Spencer Platt/Getty Images

民粹主义经济学的四个确定性

米兰—成功的全球经济化需要个体国家具备相当成功的增长模式。这便是二战结束后30年的情况:许多国家的增长率都相对较高;经济增长的收益在国内得到了广泛分享;发展中国家的崛起则降低了全球不平等。这段时期可以说是全球化的黄金岁月。

当然,全球化在20世纪70年代及以后仍在滚滚向前。但作为其基础的增长模式已经改变。受经济全球化所隐含的劳动套利以及破坏性数字技术的推动,发达经济体的中产阶级制造业岗位纷纷消失,中位收入停滞不前,职业和收入极化加剧,尽管GDP增长依然强劲。这一新模式——它贯穿了20世纪八九十年代,进入21世纪后更是不断加速——导致了不平等性急剧升高,破坏了全球化的基础。

各国对此的反应各不相同。一些过年采取措施降低不平等性,如通过税收制度实现的再分配、社会保障和教育制度、各种社会保险,以及支持有效的再培训等。这些措施的效果往往由文化范式、劳工的制度性议价能力、劳资双方彼此间的信任水平,以及政治对个人和企业财富的影响等因素决定。

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