Wilbur Ross Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Vyvolá ekonomická negramotnost obchodní válku?

NEW YORK – Téměř 100 dní poté, co americký prezident Donald Trump nastoupil do úřadu, se on i jeho ministr obchodu Wilbur Ross dál dopouštějí ekonomického omylu, jemuž se učí vyhýbat studenti prvního ročníku ekonomie. Tvrdí, že americký deficit běžného účtu (nebo obchodní deficit), který je ve skutečnosti výsledkem nízké a stále klesající míry úspor v Americe, je indikátorem nekalých obchodních praktik Německa a Číny, dvou států s přebytky běžného účtu. Jejich ekonomická neznalost by mohla vést ke katastrofě.

Bilance běžného účtu, která měří bilanci obchodu se zbožím a službami, čistý příjem výrobních faktorů a transferové platby ze zahraničí, se rovná rozdílu mezi státními úsporami a domácími investicemi. To není teorie. Je to reálná hodnota, pokud neexistuje statistická diskrepance mezi hrubým domácím produktem (HDP) a hrubým národním důchodem (GNI). Je platná bez ohledu na to, zda je člověk liberál nebo konzervativec, populista nebo tradicionalista, keynesián nebo stoupenec strany nabídky. Dokonce ani Trump se svými vyjednávacími schopnosti na tom nemůže nic změnit. Přesto hrozí prezident obchodní válkou kvůli deficitům, které ve skutečnosti odrážejí nerovnováhu mezi americkými úsporami a investicemi.

Země vykazuje deficit běžného účtu, pokud investice převyšují státní úspory, a jsou-li naopak investice nižší než státní úspory, je výsledkem přebytek. V případě země s vyrovnaným běžným účtem může deficit vzniknout, pokud se zvýší její míra investic, klesne míra úspor nebo nastane kombinace obou faktorů.

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