Trump 22 jan Pool/Pool

Jugando con fósforos económicos

PRINCETON – A esta altura el año pasado, el Fondo Monetario Internacional informó sobre un crecimiento desalentador del PIB global del 3,1% en 2015 y prometió que el crecimiento aumentaría en 2016 y 2017. Pero esa expectativa no era realista, como expliqué en su momento. Y, como era de esperar, en 2016 se calcula que el PIB global nuevamente habrá crecido apenas el 3,1%, mientras que el crecimiento del comercio mundial se desaceleró sustancialmente, del 2,7% a un anémico 1,9%. Estas cifras describen una economía mundial en problemas.

Y, sin embargo, el FMI vuelve a prever que el crecimiento del PIB global mejorará significativamente en los próximos dos años, y que el crecimiento del comercio mundial se duplicará. El FMI atribuye gran parte de la mejora que se espera en la economía global, especialmente en 2017, a un crecimiento más sólido del PIB en Estados Unidos. Este optimismo respecto de la economía estadounidense se basa en indicadores positivos de confianza empresarial y de los consumidores y en precios en alza de las acciones, a cuenta del estímulo fiscal y la desregulación.

Pero este optimismo ignora una alteración más profunda que hoy está en marcha. La administración del presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, dificultará el crecimiento económico cuando empiece a revocar acuerdos comerciales, y el crecimiento sufrirá un impacto aún mayor cuando Estados Unidos comience a destruir las normas e instituciones que gobiernan los mercados. Peor aún, Trump cambiará las reglas del juego en un momento en que la economía global ya está frágil, China enfrenta una burbuja inmensamente inflada en su sector financiero y Europa está dormida al volante de un tren destartalado de marcha lenta en el sector bancario de Italia.

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