Trump 22 jan Pool/Pool

玩经济之火

普林斯顿—去年今日,国际货币基金组织(IMF)宣布了令人失望的2015年全球增长率——3.1%,并憧憬2016年和2017年增长率有所上升。但这一预期是不现实的,我在当时就解释了原因。果不其然,2016年预计全球GDP增长率只有3.1%,世界贸易增长更是大幅下降,从2.7%下降到只有1.9%。这些数字表明世界经济陷入了大麻烦。

但IMF再次预测全球GDP增长将在未来两年获得重大改善,世界贸易增长也将翻番。IMF将预期的全球经济改善(特别是2017年的改善)主要归因于美国GDP增长的增强。这一对美国经济的乐观态度是基于积极的企业和消费者信心指数和上涨的股价,以及预计美国将采取财政刺激和去监管化。

但如此热忱忽视了正在发酵的深层破坏因素。随着美国总统特朗普的政府退出贸易协定,经济增长将受到拖累,而随着美国开始打破治理市场的范式和机构,增长还将遭受更大的挫折。更糟糕的是,特朗普挑战规则正逢全球经济已然岌岌可危的时候,中国正面临金融业泡沫剧增,欧洲面对意大利银行业的缓慢崩溃浑然不觉。

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