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美元会式微吗?

圣芭芭拉—自特朗普当选美国总统以来,资本流入将美元推高到十多年来所未见的水平。乍一看,市场似乎对新当选总统信心十足,特朗普对美国经济来说是利好,推而广之,对美元来说也是利好。

但外表可能欺骗你。短期汇率波动并不是判断货币基本形势的好方法。货币国际用途的长期趋势——特别是作为外国投资者或央行的价值储藏手段——意义要重大得多。在未来几年——而不是几周——特朗普的当选对美元来说几乎肯定是利空。

首先,美元之所以在选举后升值,唯一原因是特朗普承诺实施深度减税并增加支出解决美国基础设施陈旧的问题和提升美国据说“耗尽”的军力。这将提振短期经济增长,并难免会推升利率。世界对有吸引力的投资回报十分饥渴,因此看到特朗普繁荣的希望吸引资金流向华尔街,反过来又增加了美元需求。

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