NY Stock Exchange Orjan F. Ellingvag/Getty Images

Трамп и международная валютная система

ГОНКОНГ – Трудно понять, что именно будет делать будущий президент США Дональд Трамп, когда в январе вступит в должность. Но почти гарантированно он займётся снижением налогов и повышением инфраструктурных расходов. По этой причине финансовые рынки ожидают ускорения экономического роста в США. Подобные настроения способствуют укреплению курса доллара по отношению к большинству других валют, включая юань, и провоцируют бегство капитала из развивающихся стран.

Несмотря на клятвенное обещание Трампа ввести пошлины на импорт из Китая, укрепившийся доллар будет вредить конкурентоспособности Америки в международной торговле. Ведь ещё в июне, согласно расчётам Международного валютного фонда, доллар был переоценён на 10-20%.

Но это не всё. Считается, что международная торговля является главным двигателем валютных курсов (они должны повышаться или понижаться для корректировки внешних дисбалансов государства), однако масштабы движения капиталов достигли такой степени, что их роль в определении валютных курсов стала сейчас более значительной. В этом контексте рыночный оптимизм по поводу американского роста может привести к дальнейшему увеличению дисбалансов и, возможно, к сбоям в международной валютной системе.

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